NFL kicked off last night with the Saints squeaking a win out at home. They earned me a little cash as I tend to be cautious the first week with my plays. I took the Saints ML -250 and I made a little spending money on their 5 point win. I hope for your bank accounts sake you are now following our new radio show at www.blogtalkradio.com/gametheory if not why do you hate money so much?? Lets get to the picks.
49ers -3 This will be my first big play of the season, I know, I know, I am contradicting myself from what I stated above. That being said this will be a 5 unit play for me. The 49ers kept most of their offensive weapons on the shelf for the preseason, Alex Smith has improved. Normally going to play the Seahawks at home is not a fun task but, who exactly is going to block for the aging Matt Hasselbeck? Both Willis and Okung are out and Seattle's O-line is a dumpster fire. San Fran will have no problem stopping the Seahawks run game and Hassellbeck will have no time to throw. I don't even know if the Seahawks will find the endzone.
5 Units. Loss.
Packers -3 On the road in Philly for their season opener, Philly is a decent squad, but I do see some holes in the O-line and secondary. Kolb is facing a daunting task in his season debut. The Packers if you have been listening to the show are my favorites to win the Superbowl I have them beating the Ravens. Rodgers was untouchable in the preseason. The Packers are finally able to offer him some pass protection. Rodgers also has a ton of weapons at his disposal Jennings, Driver and Finely are all excellent options, I look for the Pack to leave Philly with a win. Packers win this game by 6.
1 Unit. Win.
Ravens +3 My Superbowl pick to play the Packers this year. I'm not buying the Jets this season. I don't even see them winning the conference as I think the Patriots will be a sleeper this season. Joe Flacco in my opinion will have a great year with his two new toys he gets to play with plus the Ravens do posses a top 5 back and a great offensive line. The defense is a year older but they are always a stalwart. Sanchez was unimpressive in the preseason and I don't see him doing much against the Ravens D. I'll take the points and the money. The Ravens won't be bothered by the Jets home opener in their new stadium on Monday night.
1 Unit. Win.
Texans +3 I think this is the year the Texans finally get over the hump with the Colts. The public and their hard earned money is flying the Colts way, to the tune of over 90%. I'm going against the grain here and I like getting three at home. The Texans are 8-1 ATS as dogs at home since 2006, another disturbing trend is the Superbowl Hangover Theory in which Superbowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their first game since the big one. I think the Colts secondary and their running game is suspect. They also have some holes on their O-line lets hope Schaub and company can keep this one close.
1 Unit. Win.
Lions +7 I believe the last time I took the Lions they burned me, if I remember correctly they went up 17 points and I was already getting them at +8 so I already started spending that money in my mind, that game was 2 years ago against the Bucs. Different times now for the Lions as they are actually projected to win a few games this year.The Lions are a publicly backed dog to the tune of 64%, the public is actually putting their hard earned money on the Lions? wow. The Bears were undefeated in losing this preseason and there is the old saying the preseason doesn't count but, it does matter. The Lions are full of young stars like Stafford, Johnson and Best. It seems Cutler is worried about beating his interception total for last year because all preseason long he was holding onto the ball like it owed him money. I am concerned about the pass protection for Cutler in this contest. Let's see we have a Mike Martz offense and a Lions D-line featuring Suh and Vanden Bosch, Cutler might get sacked between 6-10 times this game. Even though the Bears D-line has improved with the addition of Peppers he does have a knack for loafing and he already signed his big contract so we will see what production he puts up. Lions take this game by 4 and we cover comfortably, sorry battle!
3 Units. Win.
There you go, 5 games to help cover your mortgage refi in this wonderful economy, take some of the money I win you this weekend and by the wife, girlfriend or mistress a nice new dress or some new shoes! Also I will be posting other picks sans write up because I go over each game on our radio show and you know that because you are listening!
Rest of my picks:
Raiders +7 (1 Unit) Loss
Patriots -4 (1 Unit) Win
Browns +3 (1 Unit) Push
Broncos +3 (1 Unit) Loss.
Chargers -5 (1 Unit)
Friday, September 10, 2010
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Week #2 NCAA Picks
For my official picks of the 2010 season my record is 0-0-1. I was not able to post all of my picks due to the fact I have to attend this awful place called work daily. Also I was able to get all my picks out on our fresh new radio show, be sure to check it out on Thursday September 9th @ 7:00PM tune or click in at www.blogtalkradio.com/gametheory it will be worth your while. On our next show we will be doing a recap of last weeks games and give you some NCAA winners and NFL winners to add a cash mix in to your bank account. We will also delve into some relative sports headlines throughout the past week. So lets see what teams will be our top earners this Saturday, don't forget to tune in Thursday for more in depth analysis.
$$$$$$$$$$Thursday Night Home Dog Special$$$$$$$$$$$
Mississippi State +3 Dan Mullen had his defense and offense hitting on all cylinders as they took apart there C-USA opponents Memphis. I don't know why the Tigers are favored on the road here. The Arkansas Red Wolves gave the Tigers all they could handle on Auburn's home turf. Lets hope we steal some money from Vegas here, I like money more than Cam Newton likes stealing laptops.........OH!! Push.
Florida State +8 Christian Ponder had a nice outing against Samford, Jimbo Fishers alma matter recieved no quarters from the Seminole onslaught. Oklahoma squeaked out a win versus perenial power house Utah State Aggies. If Oklahoma does win it will be a squeaker. I expect FSU to be within a touchdown this whole contest, if they aren't ahead. Diondre Borrell had alot of success against the Sooners, like I said I think Ponder can keep this game close. Loss.
Michigan +4 Richie Rod really needs this win on Notre Dames turf. Last week the Wolverines dispatched a solid UCONN team although the Huskies contributed to their own demise by dropping 6 balls. The Michigan D kept Jordan Todman in check and Denard Robinson went nuts on UCONN D. Last year a lesser Michigan squad beat ND by 4 with Jimmy Claussen and Golden Tate on the field, this time around Dane Crist and Armando Allen won't be enough as the Irish fall short. Win.
Miami +9 Jacory Harris > Tyrelle Pryor. The Buckeyes will have trouble with Miami's swarming defense and will not be able to match the Canes speed. Miami is being overlooked early in the season and will be looking forward to this game to make a statement. If Ohio State does win it won't be by more than a touchdown. Loss.
South Florida +17 If USF can avoid some early special teams mistakes (see last weeks game) and play the type of defense they are capable of I see no reason why they wont cover the 16. UF did not look sharp against a dreadful Miami of Ohio squad, the offense sputtered but the defense managed to pull Urban's boys out of the fire. BJ Daniels is going to have to play turnover free football and be effective with his throws, hopefully the Bulls can pull this one out or there will be alot of broken furniture in my apartment. I just feel that 16 is too big a number in this spot. Loss.
$$$$$$$$$$Thursday Night Home Dog Special$$$$$$$$$$$
Mississippi State +3 Dan Mullen had his defense and offense hitting on all cylinders as they took apart there C-USA opponents Memphis. I don't know why the Tigers are favored on the road here. The Arkansas Red Wolves gave the Tigers all they could handle on Auburn's home turf. Lets hope we steal some money from Vegas here, I like money more than Cam Newton likes stealing laptops.........OH!! Push.
Florida State +8 Christian Ponder had a nice outing against Samford, Jimbo Fishers alma matter recieved no quarters from the Seminole onslaught. Oklahoma squeaked out a win versus perenial power house Utah State Aggies. If Oklahoma does win it will be a squeaker. I expect FSU to be within a touchdown this whole contest, if they aren't ahead. Diondre Borrell had alot of success against the Sooners, like I said I think Ponder can keep this game close. Loss.
Michigan +4 Richie Rod really needs this win on Notre Dames turf. Last week the Wolverines dispatched a solid UCONN team although the Huskies contributed to their own demise by dropping 6 balls. The Michigan D kept Jordan Todman in check and Denard Robinson went nuts on UCONN D. Last year a lesser Michigan squad beat ND by 4 with Jimmy Claussen and Golden Tate on the field, this time around Dane Crist and Armando Allen won't be enough as the Irish fall short. Win.
Miami +9 Jacory Harris > Tyrelle Pryor. The Buckeyes will have trouble with Miami's swarming defense and will not be able to match the Canes speed. Miami is being overlooked early in the season and will be looking forward to this game to make a statement. If Ohio State does win it won't be by more than a touchdown. Loss.
South Florida +17 If USF can avoid some early special teams mistakes (see last weeks game) and play the type of defense they are capable of I see no reason why they wont cover the 16. UF did not look sharp against a dreadful Miami of Ohio squad, the offense sputtered but the defense managed to pull Urban's boys out of the fire. BJ Daniels is going to have to play turnover free football and be effective with his throws, hopefully the Bulls can pull this one out or there will be alot of broken furniture in my apartment. I just feel that 16 is too big a number in this spot. Loss.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
NCAA Week #1 Football Picks
Here we go right to the point, I'm starting off with a weeknight opening kick off pick. I will be back with some more oicks for Saturday. To get the season off on the right foot I'm going with the following:
Pitt +3 Utah has alot of players gone from last years team. Pitt has alot of starters returning not to include Bill Stull. A new QB will be broken in by the mustache tonight. Look for it to be the Dion Lewis show here and Pitt will bring some defense to the Utes. Utah is also 0-5 against AP top 25 teams on opening week. 15 game winning streak comes to and end tonight. Enjoy.
Pitt +3 Utah has alot of players gone from last years team. Pitt has alot of starters returning not to include Bill Stull. A new QB will be broken in by the mustache tonight. Look for it to be the Dion Lewis show here and Pitt will bring some defense to the Utes. Utah is also 0-5 against AP top 25 teams on opening week. 15 game winning streak comes to and end tonight. Enjoy.
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Testing 1....2.....3......
It's about that time for college football to kick off again. For those of you miffed with my absence I have been in Ft. Benning Georgia training Americas next generation of defenders for the US Army working 16 hour days with no days off has not been conducive for updating my blog. Can't wait till February to get out of here and back to Tampa, good times that will be for sure. Until then I will be posting my NFL and College picks as per usual. See you soon.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
NCAA Week #14
Here we go, last week to add some respectability to my college record. I am at a 43-41-3 mark right now. I have to at least finish the season in the black. Lets get to the action.
West Virginia +2 I think the wrong team is favored here. West Virginia has been playing and winning some close games against solid teams this year. Bill Stewart finally got a signature win last week against Pitt. This should relieve some of the pressure on the Mountaineers. Their defense played very well against solid teams like Pitt and Cincy. I think Brown and Divine coupled with the WVU defense can get it done on the road against Rutgers.Win.
Cincinatti Bearcats -2 This game boiled down to coaching, I still think of Wandtstedt as the coach who ruined the Bears, but he seemed to find his niche at Pitt. Cincy's Brian Kelly is the hot ticket item this season. Cincy's offense is a machine that will keep churning in this contest, Pitt might slow it down a little with their defense but Stull has been somewhat careless with the ball lately, which keeps me from going the other way in this contest. Should be a well played game but I look for Cincy to pull it out by 4. Loss.
New Mexico State +48 Boise State doesn't even score 48 points a game, they average about 42 a contest so as long as the Aggies can stumble across a touchdown I feel pretty comfortable getting the 48 points here. Boise State should have a BCS game wrapped up, the Oklahoma State loss really helped there cause and I can't see them getting shortchanged for the second year in a row. I say this because I think Boise St will win this game comfortably (21 points) but it won't be a total blowout since they have already proved their point.Win.
Florida -6 Should be an interesting game, Tim Tebow just doesn't lose these types of games. Alabama was unimpressive versus Auburn. Even with Dunlap out I think the Gators are just too much for the Tide to handle. Ingram should be stacked up by the Gators D-line and LB's forcing McCelroy to move the chains himself against a solid Florida secondary. Both coaches are great at their craft, but Florida will also have the refs on their side and who can bet against that?Loss.
UCONN -7 The Huskies have been underrated all year, they have lost all there game by a combined 15 points. USF has to travel to frigid North Hartford for this Saturday night contest. UCONN can become bowl eligible with a win here and will be hungry for that. I don't see how USF can stop Todman and Dixon, UCONN usually runs all over the Bulls year in and year out. Frazier has also proved he can throw the ball and UCONN can put up points. On the other side UCONN's defense is pretty good and should have no problems stopping the Bulls rushing "attack" and bottling up BJ Daniels. I think USF will get blown out in this game. Daniels spends too much time running around in the backfield instead of looking down field to make a play. Claussen had trouble against UCONN's secondary, so how can Daniels do any better? Loss.
Nebraska +14 I have a weird feeling about this game. Nebraska has a solid defense so this should be a low scoring affair. That being said the Huskers offense can be anemic at times. I think Texas wins this game but it will be a close, hard fought game. Texas A&M showed that the Longhorns can be run on so Helu Jr. should have a nice game here taking some of the pressure off Zac Lee. Pelini's squad keeps this one close. Win.
Season Record 46-44-1 (I am done with college football)
There you have it, hopefully I can end the College football season on a high note.
West Virginia +2 I think the wrong team is favored here. West Virginia has been playing and winning some close games against solid teams this year. Bill Stewart finally got a signature win last week against Pitt. This should relieve some of the pressure on the Mountaineers. Their defense played very well against solid teams like Pitt and Cincy. I think Brown and Divine coupled with the WVU defense can get it done on the road against Rutgers.Win.
Cincinatti Bearcats -2 This game boiled down to coaching, I still think of Wandtstedt as the coach who ruined the Bears, but he seemed to find his niche at Pitt. Cincy's Brian Kelly is the hot ticket item this season. Cincy's offense is a machine that will keep churning in this contest, Pitt might slow it down a little with their defense but Stull has been somewhat careless with the ball lately, which keeps me from going the other way in this contest. Should be a well played game but I look for Cincy to pull it out by 4. Loss.
New Mexico State +48 Boise State doesn't even score 48 points a game, they average about 42 a contest so as long as the Aggies can stumble across a touchdown I feel pretty comfortable getting the 48 points here. Boise State should have a BCS game wrapped up, the Oklahoma State loss really helped there cause and I can't see them getting shortchanged for the second year in a row. I say this because I think Boise St will win this game comfortably (21 points) but it won't be a total blowout since they have already proved their point.Win.
Florida -6 Should be an interesting game, Tim Tebow just doesn't lose these types of games. Alabama was unimpressive versus Auburn. Even with Dunlap out I think the Gators are just too much for the Tide to handle. Ingram should be stacked up by the Gators D-line and LB's forcing McCelroy to move the chains himself against a solid Florida secondary. Both coaches are great at their craft, but Florida will also have the refs on their side and who can bet against that?Loss.
UCONN -7 The Huskies have been underrated all year, they have lost all there game by a combined 15 points. USF has to travel to frigid North Hartford for this Saturday night contest. UCONN can become bowl eligible with a win here and will be hungry for that. I don't see how USF can stop Todman and Dixon, UCONN usually runs all over the Bulls year in and year out. Frazier has also proved he can throw the ball and UCONN can put up points. On the other side UCONN's defense is pretty good and should have no problems stopping the Bulls rushing "attack" and bottling up BJ Daniels. I think USF will get blown out in this game. Daniels spends too much time running around in the backfield instead of looking down field to make a play. Claussen had trouble against UCONN's secondary, so how can Daniels do any better? Loss.
Nebraska +14 I have a weird feeling about this game. Nebraska has a solid defense so this should be a low scoring affair. That being said the Huskers offense can be anemic at times. I think Texas wins this game but it will be a close, hard fought game. Texas A&M showed that the Longhorns can be run on so Helu Jr. should have a nice game here taking some of the pressure off Zac Lee. Pelini's squad keeps this one close. Win.
Season Record 46-44-1 (I am done with college football)
There you have it, hopefully I can end the College football season on a high note.
Monday, November 30, 2009
NFL Week #13 The Early Bird Specials
Here are some early plays as The Blanket will be out of town until late Thursday and I don't want to get behind in my handicapping. The Blanket has been hovering around 58% on action in November and the hate mail is starting to hit my Yahoo account. Lets not forget that I am 61-31-1 in NFL action against the spread. I had an off November but now its time for my late season surge. Just collected on 2 unit play on the Saints game and its time to do some reinvesting!!
LATE PICKS ADDED********Patroits @ Miami also ML Dogs are posted.
Bills +3 Hmmm is Coach Fewell onto something here? Running Fred Jackson? Fitzpatrick throwing deep? The Bills made me pay on Sunday, so hopefully they will be generous to me this Sunday. I like to take the Bills on the road, and technically they will be the home team in this contest versus the Jets in Toronto. I am thinking this team is getting behind Coach Fewell who was a Bears assistant but, he knew how to coach so the Bears sent him packing, they can't have that in Chicago. Terrell Owens should be happy now that balls are heading his way and Fred Jackson has replaced degenerate Marshawn Lynch effectively. The Bills are solid against the pass and middle of the road versus the run. Delhomme gift wrapped that game for the Jets last week as NY managed 13 points off 4 picks thrown by Jake, he is awful and the Panthers are done. Sanchez had a knee problem in last weeks game so who knows how effective he will be in this contest. Looks like the Bills are believing in themselves again. 3 units.Loss.
Broncos -4 Huge bounce back game for the Broncos on Thanksgiving night. Denver is now 7-4 and in possession of a wildcard spot. Orton had a good game against the Giants, who have a much better pass rush than the Chiefs. The home team has won 14 of 16 in this series, but the Chiefs are terrible and they embarrassed me as they got blown out last week against San Diego. Some might think the Broncos will sleepwalk through this contest, I don't the Broncos need an easy win against a garbage team like KC to bolster their playoff hopes and McDaniels should have them ready to build upon the beating they put on the Giants. The Broncos really need this game as they have a showdown with the Colts looming. 2 units.Win.
Texans Pick The Texans season is over as far as the playoffs are concerned, so why not ruin the Jags season while they are at it? The Jags are clinging to wildcard hopes and the Texans will extinguish that flame here. Jacksonville, much like the Eagles are a team that tends to get up off the floor when everyone is down on them, but I think the Texans will step on their throats here. The Texans got caught celebrating what they thought was a win a little to early. Garrard while having a solid year has had a real problem with fumbling the football thanks to his pedestrian offensive line. The Texans have improved against the run, but the numbers are skewed a little bit since they have played to Colts pass happy offense twice in recent games. MJD hasn't had a big game in a while, Sims-Walker was ineffective against the 49ers secondary so I do not see it getting better with Dunta Robinson covering him. Schaub has alot of weapons in the passing game and the Jags secondary is depleted, I like the Texans here. 2 units. Loss.
Cowboys Pick It's December will Tony Romo have another meltdown? I don't see it happening. The distractions for Romo have been dealt with and he seems to be moving on, so I think he will reverse that trend. This is a revenge game for them against the reeling Giants who have been really disappointing so far this year after starting so well. Romo torched a solid Raiders secondary with ease and the Giants are still hurting for help in the secondary Jones and Williams should carry over their success from last week. The Cowboys running attack has been getting healthy while Bradshaw is still banged up for the Giants. The Cowboys need this game to get some separation on the Giants and can't afford to get swept, the Cowboys also need to stay up on the Eagles who should win with ease this week against the Falcons. 2 units.Loss.
49ers Pick Revenge game for the 49ers as they travel to Qwest field. The 49ers have lost some games but have been in all of them Alex Smith and Crabtree look good and TE Vernon Davis is really emerging as a solid option. The 49ers are still in the hunt for the NFC West and can't afford to drop a conference game to Seattle who is dead in the water. The Seahawks just want this disaster season to be over with and I can't see them getting up for this game against a 49ers team coming off a solid performance against the Jags. 3 units.Loss.
Eagles -5 Mike Vick back in Atanta..........who cares, he only has 6 more passing yards then me this season. The Falcons couldn't win this game with Ryan starting. Historically the Eagles own the Falcons and I see that trend continuing here. Redman holds onto the ball way to long and with Sam Baker getting benched Trent Cole might spend more time in the Falcons backfield then Norwood and Snelling combined. Samuels should be back for this game and he will take Roddy White out of this contest, Jackson is still undecided for this game, I personally do not think he will play and have replaced him with Jason Avant in my fantasy league, but Philly still has alot of weapons that the Falcons abysmal secondary will not be able to contain. This game could get ugly, unless I am missing something here I am going to make this a big play. Atlanta has been decent against the run but Philly and Andy Reid hate running the ball and are a prolific screen team which will rack up huge yardage against the Falcons. 5 units.Win.
Chargers -13 The Browns lost Shaun Rogers for the season with an Achilles. The Browns simply can't run or throw the ball. They covered for me last week but the Bengals simply can't put points up in bunches so that was an easy play. The Chargers are rolling right now, with a 6 game winning streak I don't think they will slow down here. Thanks to Cassell I lost on my Chiefs pick last week and was embarrassed as Cassell put the ball on the ground and threw pics. I have learned my lesson. I think the Chargers are good for 24 points in this game, the Browns maybe 6-7 points. Without Rogers rushing the passer Rivers will have plenty of time to pick the Browns secondary apart, the Browns should find themselves in an early hole which will mean Quinn will be forced to throw alot. That will be good news for us. 4 units. Loss.
Vikings -3 Looks like Warner will be back for this game. Could the Cards be seeking revenge for last years behind the Woodshed beating they took by the Vikings last year?? Remember who the QB was for that game, I do not think he is as good as Favre do you? The Vikings are going to continue to win as they try to chase the Saints down so they can get home field advantage and the Cards have been iffy at home. I question Wisenhut's call on letting Warner start against the Vikings defense especially with Gandy out and Allen coming after him. I'm about of a Warner honk and would like to see him come back for 2010 to improve his numbers for his HOF bid. I just think for this game that the Vikings just have too many weapons for Arizona and Favre has been lights out this year. 3 units.
Titans +7 The Colts do not care about going 16-0. One of their players recently said "records don't win rings". Very true. VY just doesn't lose games. Chris Johnson although not as fast as Rajon Rondo (hahahahahaha) is a machine right now and I think the improved play of the Titans secondary coupled with their offense lets them win this game by 3 points. I will also be making a small play on the Titans ML as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Rams +9lger was playing I would make this game a multi-unit play. The Bears will not be able to get up for the Rams after getting boatraced by the Vikings and Steven Jackson will be able to keep the Rams in this game. The Bears are really struggling on both sides of the ball. Kyle Boller had a decent game passing last week against Seattle. I just have a feeling the Bears are in a bad spot and their season is over so the Rams could be getting their second win here. 1 unit.Win.
Patriots -4 This line came out for like a half an hour at -6, now it has re posted at -4. Smells bad. I was thinking about making a nice size play on it, but now I don't trust it. Especially with all the money landing on the Patriots. There was a trend on Miami vs New England and now I cannot find it, so we will have to go with the trend that the Patriots never lose two games in a row. Miami has really been taking chunks out of my account and I am not pleased with them. Miami usually plays New England tough, but I think Brady is fuming right now and the Dolphins will not be able to stop Welker and Moss. Joey Porter is also out for this game. 3 units.Loss.
$$$$$$$$$$ML dogs$$$$$$$$$
Titans +215
Bucs +185
Rams +350
LATE PICKS ADDED********Patroits @ Miami also ML Dogs are posted.
Bills +3 Hmmm is Coach Fewell onto something here? Running Fred Jackson? Fitzpatrick throwing deep? The Bills made me pay on Sunday, so hopefully they will be generous to me this Sunday. I like to take the Bills on the road, and technically they will be the home team in this contest versus the Jets in Toronto. I am thinking this team is getting behind Coach Fewell who was a Bears assistant but, he knew how to coach so the Bears sent him packing, they can't have that in Chicago. Terrell Owens should be happy now that balls are heading his way and Fred Jackson has replaced degenerate Marshawn Lynch effectively. The Bills are solid against the pass and middle of the road versus the run. Delhomme gift wrapped that game for the Jets last week as NY managed 13 points off 4 picks thrown by Jake, he is awful and the Panthers are done. Sanchez had a knee problem in last weeks game so who knows how effective he will be in this contest. Looks like the Bills are believing in themselves again. 3 units.Loss.
Broncos -4 Huge bounce back game for the Broncos on Thanksgiving night. Denver is now 7-4 and in possession of a wildcard spot. Orton had a good game against the Giants, who have a much better pass rush than the Chiefs. The home team has won 14 of 16 in this series, but the Chiefs are terrible and they embarrassed me as they got blown out last week against San Diego. Some might think the Broncos will sleepwalk through this contest, I don't the Broncos need an easy win against a garbage team like KC to bolster their playoff hopes and McDaniels should have them ready to build upon the beating they put on the Giants. The Broncos really need this game as they have a showdown with the Colts looming. 2 units.Win.
Texans Pick The Texans season is over as far as the playoffs are concerned, so why not ruin the Jags season while they are at it? The Jags are clinging to wildcard hopes and the Texans will extinguish that flame here. Jacksonville, much like the Eagles are a team that tends to get up off the floor when everyone is down on them, but I think the Texans will step on their throats here. The Texans got caught celebrating what they thought was a win a little to early. Garrard while having a solid year has had a real problem with fumbling the football thanks to his pedestrian offensive line. The Texans have improved against the run, but the numbers are skewed a little bit since they have played to Colts pass happy offense twice in recent games. MJD hasn't had a big game in a while, Sims-Walker was ineffective against the 49ers secondary so I do not see it getting better with Dunta Robinson covering him. Schaub has alot of weapons in the passing game and the Jags secondary is depleted, I like the Texans here. 2 units. Loss.
Cowboys Pick It's December will Tony Romo have another meltdown? I don't see it happening. The distractions for Romo have been dealt with and he seems to be moving on, so I think he will reverse that trend. This is a revenge game for them against the reeling Giants who have been really disappointing so far this year after starting so well. Romo torched a solid Raiders secondary with ease and the Giants are still hurting for help in the secondary Jones and Williams should carry over their success from last week. The Cowboys running attack has been getting healthy while Bradshaw is still banged up for the Giants. The Cowboys need this game to get some separation on the Giants and can't afford to get swept, the Cowboys also need to stay up on the Eagles who should win with ease this week against the Falcons. 2 units.Loss.
49ers Pick Revenge game for the 49ers as they travel to Qwest field. The 49ers have lost some games but have been in all of them Alex Smith and Crabtree look good and TE Vernon Davis is really emerging as a solid option. The 49ers are still in the hunt for the NFC West and can't afford to drop a conference game to Seattle who is dead in the water. The Seahawks just want this disaster season to be over with and I can't see them getting up for this game against a 49ers team coming off a solid performance against the Jags. 3 units.Loss.
Eagles -5 Mike Vick back in Atanta..........who cares, he only has 6 more passing yards then me this season. The Falcons couldn't win this game with Ryan starting. Historically the Eagles own the Falcons and I see that trend continuing here. Redman holds onto the ball way to long and with Sam Baker getting benched Trent Cole might spend more time in the Falcons backfield then Norwood and Snelling combined. Samuels should be back for this game and he will take Roddy White out of this contest, Jackson is still undecided for this game, I personally do not think he will play and have replaced him with Jason Avant in my fantasy league, but Philly still has alot of weapons that the Falcons abysmal secondary will not be able to contain. This game could get ugly, unless I am missing something here I am going to make this a big play. Atlanta has been decent against the run but Philly and Andy Reid hate running the ball and are a prolific screen team which will rack up huge yardage against the Falcons. 5 units.Win.
Chargers -13 The Browns lost Shaun Rogers for the season with an Achilles. The Browns simply can't run or throw the ball. They covered for me last week but the Bengals simply can't put points up in bunches so that was an easy play. The Chargers are rolling right now, with a 6 game winning streak I don't think they will slow down here. Thanks to Cassell I lost on my Chiefs pick last week and was embarrassed as Cassell put the ball on the ground and threw pics. I have learned my lesson. I think the Chargers are good for 24 points in this game, the Browns maybe 6-7 points. Without Rogers rushing the passer Rivers will have plenty of time to pick the Browns secondary apart, the Browns should find themselves in an early hole which will mean Quinn will be forced to throw alot. That will be good news for us. 4 units. Loss.
Vikings -3 Looks like Warner will be back for this game. Could the Cards be seeking revenge for last years behind the Woodshed beating they took by the Vikings last year?? Remember who the QB was for that game, I do not think he is as good as Favre do you? The Vikings are going to continue to win as they try to chase the Saints down so they can get home field advantage and the Cards have been iffy at home. I question Wisenhut's call on letting Warner start against the Vikings defense especially with Gandy out and Allen coming after him. I'm about of a Warner honk and would like to see him come back for 2010 to improve his numbers for his HOF bid. I just think for this game that the Vikings just have too many weapons for Arizona and Favre has been lights out this year. 3 units.
Titans +7 The Colts do not care about going 16-0. One of their players recently said "records don't win rings". Very true. VY just doesn't lose games. Chris Johnson although not as fast as Rajon Rondo (hahahahahaha) is a machine right now and I think the improved play of the Titans secondary coupled with their offense lets them win this game by 3 points. I will also be making a small play on the Titans ML as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Rams +9lger was playing I would make this game a multi-unit play. The Bears will not be able to get up for the Rams after getting boatraced by the Vikings and Steven Jackson will be able to keep the Rams in this game. The Bears are really struggling on both sides of the ball. Kyle Boller had a decent game passing last week against Seattle. I just have a feeling the Bears are in a bad spot and their season is over so the Rams could be getting their second win here. 1 unit.Win.
Patriots -4 This line came out for like a half an hour at -6, now it has re posted at -4. Smells bad. I was thinking about making a nice size play on it, but now I don't trust it. Especially with all the money landing on the Patriots. There was a trend on Miami vs New England and now I cannot find it, so we will have to go with the trend that the Patriots never lose two games in a row. Miami has really been taking chunks out of my account and I am not pleased with them. Miami usually plays New England tough, but I think Brady is fuming right now and the Dolphins will not be able to stop Welker and Moss. Joey Porter is also out for this game. 3 units.Loss.
$$$$$$$$$$ML dogs$$$$$$$$$
Titans +215
Bucs +185
Rams +350
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
NFL Week #12 Free Money Report
Not the best of Sundays last week, I went 7-6 but hit most of my multi-unit plays. I guess Vegas isn't giving out their usual pre black Friday freebies. I guess the economy is even affecting the 7 guys that generate these lines. The only comfortable cover I had was the Vikings pounding the Seahawks, everything else was alot of sighing and refresh button. That's OK, Vegas can only satisfy me with nickel and dime positive units for so long. I need one of my patented monster weeks to send them a message that I don't appreciate them forsaking all of us degenerate gamblers who look forward to our late November handouts. Remember Vegas, easy way or hard way, either way I take your money. Write it down. Without further delay here are my NFL picks for this week:
Giants -7 (Thanksgiving Special) The Broncos are gassed, their veteran defense is beat up and Kyle Orton's ankle is in a bad way, much like Denver will be here. The Giants got a much needed win over a Falcons squad that isn't very good. Eli gained some much needed confidence as he torched Atlanta's abysmal secondary throwing to his vast array of talented WR's (must be nice to have a vast array of talented WR's and not have say.............Micheal "Hands of Stone" Jenkins). I don't think the Broncos will have much success running the ball in this contest which will force Orton to move the chains on his own, which on a bum ankle I think that might be a risky proposition, but when Chris Simms is your back-up I would rather roll Orton out in a wheel chair than rely on Simms to convert third downs. The Giants should be able to pound the ball and Eli will have time to throw as the Broncos cracks on D are starting to show. 2 units.Loss.
***********************PICK CHANGE ALERT, TAKING TEXANS +4********************
Texans +4 Funny the Texans were 9 point dogs 2 weeks ago. The Texans can't beat the Colts (1-14 all time and they are now 4-12 versus the Titans). The Texans also had a huge letdown on their Monday night game, which I profited from! The Colts survived a dust-up with the Ravens and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis did nothing in that game because they were shut down by Gaither and Oher. So they should have their ears pinned back and be coming after Schaub with reckless abandon. This should be a tight game, 1 more point on this spread and I would have taken the Texans. I just think this is a bad spot for them here. Texans are 1-3-1 ATS at home this year, but 5-1 ATS versus the colts in their last 6, meanwhile the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. I think that the Colts will change some things up for this game given the proximity of their last game. I also have to question both teams ability to run the ball, Addai needs to get it going here, Donald Brown should be good to go for this game too, lets hope he chips in as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Browns +14 The Bengals have no business laying 14 points to anyone, they just got waxed by Gradkowski and the Raiders, how embarrassing. Take away the beat down of the Bears and the Bengals haven't won by 14 all year, that includes a 3 point win against the Browns in Week #4 and losing to the Raiders doesn't tell me you have improved. It is also a divisional rivalry game between two teams that know and hate each other. Don't expect Brady Quinn to go berserk again and throw the ball all over the field as the Lions have an atrocious pass defense, Quinn will be scared to throw on Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall so he will most likely revert to his short junk. I was not pleased with the Browns defense last week, it's like the offense and defense both did 180's last week, lets hope the usual Browns defense shows up for this game. 3 units Win.
Redskins +10 Eagles as big favorites? Injuries to Westbrook? Hanson out? Samuels and Sheldon Brown hurt? Andy Reid as coach? Hello Money!! The Redskins have been playing a little better since the arrival of the Bingo caller extraordinaire. Campbell has been putting up solid numbers and hasn't turned the ball over. Washington has a solid defense and will be able to handle Jackson and Maclin with their pass coverage as well as Celek. Cartwright gets the start and their should be no drop-off at the RB position for the Skins as he is a good pass catcher out of the backfield. Randle-El and Moss will get the short passes as the Redskins move the ball. Philly will win this game but 10 points for a team with alot of injuries against a division foe is way too much to ask. 5 units.Win.
Dolphins -3 Miami really surprised me last week as they boat raced the Panthers sans Ronnie Brown, good for them and bad for my account as I took a large beating off that game. That's OK because the Dolphins will pay me back this week. I expected the Bills to get blown out last week with Jauron hitting the bricks, but Fewell had them in that contest against a lazy Jacksonville team. Buffalo is another team that has been decimated by injuries, Fitzpatrick had a good game last week but the Jags pass rush is nothing to write home about. Taylor and Porter will be getting after him here. The Bills running game is also non-existent as Lynch is garbage but they continue to go to him. Miami is stout against the rush so Jackson won't be able to do much either. Henne had success against a solid Panthers secondary and that should carry over to this contest. Lets hope Ricky has another career day here. 3 units.Loss.
Seahawks -3 If Bulger was starting this game I would be taking the Rams, but instead we will have Kyle Boller. I will pause while you look at Boller's stats....................................Impressive no? Seattle is a desperate team Burleson and TJ haven't caught a ball in a while, Forsett should have a big game as I foresee the Rams defense sending lots of time on the field due to Boller's ineptness. Hasselbeck should have a quality day as the Rams are awful against the pass. As long as Steven Jackson doesn't run wild we should win this one going away. 2 units.Win.
Panthers +3 John Fox needs to run the ball with Williams and Stewart, use your weapons John and run at the Jenkins-less Jets. Smith will be taken out of this game by Revis, so Delhomme will have to settle for some short passes. If the Panthers use the running game effectively they should be able to move the chains. Sanchez will have no shot against a solid secondary like the Panthers have. Carolina is better against the rush than the Patriots so they should have success in stopping Jones and Greene. The Jets are done and will probably be flat after hanging around in the Pats game only to see it slip away. Carolina on the other hand needs a win to keep Wildcard hopes alive. 2 units.Loss.
49ers -3 The Jags are a lazy team and Del Rio must have went to the Norv Turner/ Ron Turner school of game planning. Rashean Mathis is out for this game and Jacksonville's pass defense is awful, Crabtree and Davis should have nice days. Smith has some problems with protection but the Jags don't like sacking the QB anyway so it won't matter. The 49ers run defense has been spotty lately but I think it is a result of their secondary getting beat worse than Jimmy Claussen in a bar fight. Hopefully they can hold MJD down and force Garrard to throw on them, but knowing Del Rio he probably won't even start MJD and say it was his "strategy". 3 units.Win.
Chiefs +14 KC is 5-1 ATS in its last 6, 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. They were blown out by the Chargers a few weeks ago but I think that was a fluke. Cassell likes to score late touchdowns to cover and apparently not having Bowe didn't faze him as he torched the Steelers secondary last week. These two teams hate each other and the Chiefs got rid of homophobic LJ and gave the ball to Jamaal Charles, who will have success against the Chargers injury ridden front. Chambers will be looking to burn his former employers as well. The Chargers secondary has been patchwork this season as well, so Lance Long will probably do his best Wes Welker imitation and get in the mix as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Saints -3 It pains me to write that but sometimes you have to face the facts. The public is all over the Patriots and I would be to, however; the Saints get Sedrick Ellis back as well as Jabarri Greer this week. New England will not be able to run the ball. This will force Brady to do it all and Moss will be taken out of the game by Greer. So now the Saints will have to focus on Faulk and Welker. I just don't trust the Pats defense to stop Brees, he just has too many weapons and Bush will be back for this contest as well. 2 units.Win.
Vikings -11 This game could get ugly quick. The Bears are a train wreck, Forte will have no running lanes and the Bears WR's lack the experience to go against a solid secondary with Jared Allen chasing after Cutler. Antoine Winfield will be back for this game and looking to catch some passes thrown by Jay Cutler. This game could be the swan song for Lovie as his days are already numbered. Maybe the Bears should try Charles Tillman at WR, without him the Bears would probably be 0-10. 2 units.Win.
Season Record 61-31-1
There we have it 11 games for Sunday I might add one or two more games but we will see I wasn't really that high on any of these spreads this Sunday as you can tell by the absence of 4 and 5 unit plays ( well I do have one 5 unit play ). Lets hope for a nice Sunday cash flow to offset the Black Friday spending, see you at the cash cage.
Giants -7 (Thanksgiving Special) The Broncos are gassed, their veteran defense is beat up and Kyle Orton's ankle is in a bad way, much like Denver will be here. The Giants got a much needed win over a Falcons squad that isn't very good. Eli gained some much needed confidence as he torched Atlanta's abysmal secondary throwing to his vast array of talented WR's (must be nice to have a vast array of talented WR's and not have say.............Micheal "Hands of Stone" Jenkins). I don't think the Broncos will have much success running the ball in this contest which will force Orton to move the chains on his own, which on a bum ankle I think that might be a risky proposition, but when Chris Simms is your back-up I would rather roll Orton out in a wheel chair than rely on Simms to convert third downs. The Giants should be able to pound the ball and Eli will have time to throw as the Broncos cracks on D are starting to show. 2 units.Loss.
***********************PICK CHANGE ALERT, TAKING TEXANS +4********************
Texans +4 Funny the Texans were 9 point dogs 2 weeks ago. The Texans can't beat the Colts (1-14 all time and they are now 4-12 versus the Titans). The Texans also had a huge letdown on their Monday night game, which I profited from! The Colts survived a dust-up with the Ravens and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis did nothing in that game because they were shut down by Gaither and Oher. So they should have their ears pinned back and be coming after Schaub with reckless abandon. This should be a tight game, 1 more point on this spread and I would have taken the Texans. I just think this is a bad spot for them here. Texans are 1-3-1 ATS at home this year, but 5-1 ATS versus the colts in their last 6, meanwhile the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. I think that the Colts will change some things up for this game given the proximity of their last game. I also have to question both teams ability to run the ball, Addai needs to get it going here, Donald Brown should be good to go for this game too, lets hope he chips in as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Browns +14 The Bengals have no business laying 14 points to anyone, they just got waxed by Gradkowski and the Raiders, how embarrassing. Take away the beat down of the Bears and the Bengals haven't won by 14 all year, that includes a 3 point win against the Browns in Week #4 and losing to the Raiders doesn't tell me you have improved. It is also a divisional rivalry game between two teams that know and hate each other. Don't expect Brady Quinn to go berserk again and throw the ball all over the field as the Lions have an atrocious pass defense, Quinn will be scared to throw on Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall so he will most likely revert to his short junk. I was not pleased with the Browns defense last week, it's like the offense and defense both did 180's last week, lets hope the usual Browns defense shows up for this game. 3 units Win.
Redskins +10 Eagles as big favorites? Injuries to Westbrook? Hanson out? Samuels and Sheldon Brown hurt? Andy Reid as coach? Hello Money!! The Redskins have been playing a little better since the arrival of the Bingo caller extraordinaire. Campbell has been putting up solid numbers and hasn't turned the ball over. Washington has a solid defense and will be able to handle Jackson and Maclin with their pass coverage as well as Celek. Cartwright gets the start and their should be no drop-off at the RB position for the Skins as he is a good pass catcher out of the backfield. Randle-El and Moss will get the short passes as the Redskins move the ball. Philly will win this game but 10 points for a team with alot of injuries against a division foe is way too much to ask. 5 units.Win.
Dolphins -3 Miami really surprised me last week as they boat raced the Panthers sans Ronnie Brown, good for them and bad for my account as I took a large beating off that game. That's OK because the Dolphins will pay me back this week. I expected the Bills to get blown out last week with Jauron hitting the bricks, but Fewell had them in that contest against a lazy Jacksonville team. Buffalo is another team that has been decimated by injuries, Fitzpatrick had a good game last week but the Jags pass rush is nothing to write home about. Taylor and Porter will be getting after him here. The Bills running game is also non-existent as Lynch is garbage but they continue to go to him. Miami is stout against the rush so Jackson won't be able to do much either. Henne had success against a solid Panthers secondary and that should carry over to this contest. Lets hope Ricky has another career day here. 3 units.Loss.
Seahawks -3 If Bulger was starting this game I would be taking the Rams, but instead we will have Kyle Boller. I will pause while you look at Boller's stats....................................Impressive no? Seattle is a desperate team Burleson and TJ haven't caught a ball in a while, Forsett should have a big game as I foresee the Rams defense sending lots of time on the field due to Boller's ineptness. Hasselbeck should have a quality day as the Rams are awful against the pass. As long as Steven Jackson doesn't run wild we should win this one going away. 2 units.Win.
Panthers +3 John Fox needs to run the ball with Williams and Stewart, use your weapons John and run at the Jenkins-less Jets. Smith will be taken out of this game by Revis, so Delhomme will have to settle for some short passes. If the Panthers use the running game effectively they should be able to move the chains. Sanchez will have no shot against a solid secondary like the Panthers have. Carolina is better against the rush than the Patriots so they should have success in stopping Jones and Greene. The Jets are done and will probably be flat after hanging around in the Pats game only to see it slip away. Carolina on the other hand needs a win to keep Wildcard hopes alive. 2 units.Loss.
49ers -3 The Jags are a lazy team and Del Rio must have went to the Norv Turner/ Ron Turner school of game planning. Rashean Mathis is out for this game and Jacksonville's pass defense is awful, Crabtree and Davis should have nice days. Smith has some problems with protection but the Jags don't like sacking the QB anyway so it won't matter. The 49ers run defense has been spotty lately but I think it is a result of their secondary getting beat worse than Jimmy Claussen in a bar fight. Hopefully they can hold MJD down and force Garrard to throw on them, but knowing Del Rio he probably won't even start MJD and say it was his "strategy". 3 units.Win.
Chiefs +14 KC is 5-1 ATS in its last 6, 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. They were blown out by the Chargers a few weeks ago but I think that was a fluke. Cassell likes to score late touchdowns to cover and apparently not having Bowe didn't faze him as he torched the Steelers secondary last week. These two teams hate each other and the Chiefs got rid of homophobic LJ and gave the ball to Jamaal Charles, who will have success against the Chargers injury ridden front. Chambers will be looking to burn his former employers as well. The Chargers secondary has been patchwork this season as well, so Lance Long will probably do his best Wes Welker imitation and get in the mix as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Saints -3 It pains me to write that but sometimes you have to face the facts. The public is all over the Patriots and I would be to, however; the Saints get Sedrick Ellis back as well as Jabarri Greer this week. New England will not be able to run the ball. This will force Brady to do it all and Moss will be taken out of the game by Greer. So now the Saints will have to focus on Faulk and Welker. I just don't trust the Pats defense to stop Brees, he just has too many weapons and Bush will be back for this contest as well. 2 units.Win.
Vikings -11 This game could get ugly quick. The Bears are a train wreck, Forte will have no running lanes and the Bears WR's lack the experience to go against a solid secondary with Jared Allen chasing after Cutler. Antoine Winfield will be back for this game and looking to catch some passes thrown by Jay Cutler. This game could be the swan song for Lovie as his days are already numbered. Maybe the Bears should try Charles Tillman at WR, without him the Bears would probably be 0-10. 2 units.Win.
Season Record 61-31-1
There we have it 11 games for Sunday I might add one or two more games but we will see I wasn't really that high on any of these spreads this Sunday as you can tell by the absence of 4 and 5 unit plays ( well I do have one 5 unit play ). Lets hope for a nice Sunday cash flow to offset the Black Friday spending, see you at the cash cage.
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