Game Theory Radio

Tuesday, November 17, 2009

NCAA Week #12 Give-my-$$$$$-awayathon

I got my ass kicked again on Saturday, so I will be nickle and diming my college picks from now on; or at least until I string some covers together. Lets recap last weekends total losses. I got destroyed on college games, went 5-4 on my NFL picks, lost my fantasy football match up, got eliminated from my Survivor League, fell to the 98th percentile in my Pro Pick 'em league and 88th percentile in my College ATS Pick 'em league, good stuff..........I like!! I have to stop trying to out think the room. That being said here is my latest attempt to go 0-5 in the Pick 'em Challenge, along with a couple bonus games that I will fail to cover:




Boise St -23 I like to get one loss in during the week, that way I am assured that I will continue to lose money come Saturday. The Aggies are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games versus the Broncos, which means they will cover this game easily. The Broncos average margin of victory over Utah St. is 37.5 points over the last 4 contests, further proof that the Aggies will cover. The Broncos need a huge win here to keep pace with TCU and Cincy who each have a leg up on Boise in the BCS standings. The Broncos easily dispatched with the Vandals last week and have a showdown with the Pomeranian Pack next week which will be their toughest opponent since Oregon, further evidence that Boise St won't cover here.Win.



TCU -31 I don't like laying alot of points, but apparently I like to give my money away to Vegas on Saturday afternoons and evenings. TCU hammered the Cowboys last year and they are also looking to keep up with the pack for a BCS berth. Andy Dalton has transformed from a game manager to a solid QB. Wyoming has struggled to score points at times, so seeing as how I am taking the Horned Frogs here, the Cowboys should light up the scoreboard and cover easily. In all honesty I do not see how the Cowboys will be able to score more than 7 points here. They were shutout by Air Force no to long ago, as well as blown out by BYU 2 weeks ago. TCU is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road tilts while the Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in there last 7 games, further proof that I will also lose this game.Win.



Rutgers -8 Rutgers is starting their usual late season surge, hey Jim Leavitt you should try that sometime. The Scarlett Knights have lost to 2 top 10 teams, Cincy and Pitt. Syracuse is losing players faster than my Bodog account is losing money. Rutgers destroyed USF on naty TV, much to my embarrassment. Paulus is alot like BJ Daniels, both point guards and both like to scramble around for 30 seconds and then throw a pass for negative yardage, get sacked, fumble or throw a pick. Rutgers should take advantage of this situation and destroy the Orange in the Carrier Dome. With Syracuse's lack of players I don't see how they can stay in this game versus a Rutgers team that believes in themselves.Loss.



Stanford -7 The Cardinal are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games, which means they should fail to cover this game. Harbaugh's bunch has been quite impressive and covered for me last week as they destroyed USC, this was surprising as I though they might be a little flat coming off a victory against Orgeon. Andrew Luck will be the best QB in the Pac-10 for the remainder of his time there. Nobody has had success stopping Toby Gearhart, so with both the passing and running game looking solid Stanford should have no problem covering the 7 against a Jahvid Best-less Cal team.Loss.



Nevada -30 I would like to finish this Saturday out with a solid 0-5 mark, so i will be taking the Pomeranian Pack to shit their pants against the powerhouse New Mexico State. Nevada has seemed to figure out its offense and they have cost me money twice this year, I look for that trend to continue. The Aggies love getting blown out and I love giving my money to Vegas apparently so I look for New Mexico State to cover this game easily so I can wire transfer some more cash over to Bodog. Win.



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Extra Money Picks:

UCONN +7 Zach Frazier heads back to South Bend with a chip on his shoulder, let's hope the chip doesn't tell him to throw any interceptions. UCONN's O-line will dominate ND up front as they are all the same size as coach Front Butt. UCONN is a pesky team with a solid running attack and two weeks of prep time. What better game for the Huskies and Edsel to win and dedicate to their fallen teammate Jasper Howard then a win at ND? The only suspect area on UCONN is their secondary, lets hope they use the running game to eat clock. Win.


Ohio State -12 You won't cover this game Jim Tressel, you point shaving, sweater vest wearing shitbag. Your team can't score, even against Michigan. Prove me wrong, you won't. Michigan has no defense, if you put their defense with the USF offense they would make the worst team in D-1 football. The Wolverines top rusher is out and I don't think Forcier can keep it close by himself. Loss.


Penn St -3 Joe Pa loves to win games that no one is talking about, this is one of them. Sparty is having a down year and lost to Notre Dame which shamed me. Michigan State is having problems on offense, I think Penn State might be too much for them to handle. You may notice that the Blanket always wears a Michigan State hat (and sometimes covers........) I am not an Alumni..........yet........I am too embarrassed to wear USF gear in Tampa, which is a town overrun with Gator and Seminole fans. The Blanket was supposed to be going to Law School at MSU but thanks to the economy I don't have the money..............soon enough me friends.........soon enough.
Win.



USF -11 Speaking of embarrassment, here come my Bulls right on cue. L'ville struggles to win in Tampa, even when they were good............this year they are not good. After a barn-burning 10-9 victory against Syracuse, but the Cards have major problems, the Bulls cannot lose this game or Leavitt could be kicking rocks.............not that its a bad thing. Bulls should squeak out the 11 point spread. Win.



LSU+4 Ole Miss crushed LSU last year, but they are not as good this year. I don't quite understand why the #9 team in the country is a 4 point dog but OK. The Tigers offense has been getting a little better each week, while their defense has been pretty solid through out. Hopefully the LSU that played Florida and Alabama shows up and not the LSU that struggled against La. Tech. Win.


Season Record 40-38-2
Pick 'em Challenge 6-13-1
There you have it, my 5 guaranteed losers. Please feel free to fade all of my picks and enjoy the money that I will win you because I obviously have become allergic to covering college football games and money.

Weekend Recap NCAA Week 11/ NFL Week 10

Garbage. Crap. Dumpster fire. Pants shit. Pants defecating. That sums up the weekend, I went 4-4 on my NFL picks as Vegas had a huge weekend. I hit with the Patriots on some unpublished action in a desperation late trigger pull that helped my account with a 10 unit haul. I also quintupled down on the Ravens last night to pull in some heavy units. Vegas was thrilled to see me and Billy Vegas reeling and on the ropes. After the 4pm NFL games Billy Vegas's and my accounts resembled Cotto's face after his fight against Pac-man on Saturday night. The good news is that I can only get better, I have been in a month long rut and hired a priest to come to my house and excercise the evil spirits lurking within. I also sprinkled some brick dust in front of both doors at my house to keep the evil spirits from returning. I have seen the NFL lines and there isn't alot that gives me the warm and fuzzies.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

NFL Week #10 Free Money Report

I am racheting up my NFL action this week, I will probably go with 10 posted games. I have already locked in 3 games for Sunday. I had another decent Sunday last week, bringing my NFL season record to 44-16-1. It has been keeping me in the game. I will also be posting some NFL Live Dog ML's when they come out usually on Saturday. I will be out of town this weekend so hopefully I can get them up in time. Let's dive into what I have for this weekend begining with the Thursday night showdown. I need some winner's this Sunday hopefully it will cure the flu that I currently have.




49ers -3 The Bears are falling apart, now they must go to the West coast and play a desperate 49ers squad on a weeknight which should make for a rabid environment. Both teams have huge problems with their offensive lines. For the Bears this explains why Forte is struggiling and Cutler is under constant pressure, if the Bears had an O-line they would be a much better team. The 49ers have injuries on their O-line as well, they also have Frank Gore though. Smith has been doing OK in place of Hill and has some weapons. The Bears defense has been having problems as well as the Bengals and Cards have torched them in recent weeks. I just think a west coast trip on a short week against a desperate squad will be too much to handle, plus the Bears hate winning on the road. The Bears are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on the road. 2 units.Win.



Broncos -3 Kyle Orton had his bad game, so now its out of the way. The public is down on the Broncos now, but I'm not. I have bet on every game they have played this year, going with them 6 times and against them twice. The Broncos have a special place in my heart, they were the first team I bet on when I arrived in Vegas at the NYNY Sportsbook, and they were a winner. Hello Money!! Me > Vegas. I thought to myself "wow, this covering stuff is easy" I strutted around like a cock strong rooster till my girlfriend reminded me I only won $40. The Redskins out gained the Falcons last week, but Campbell is garbage and now they are starting Ladell Betts. The Broncos are a proud veteran team and what better tonic than a tilt with the Deadskins. Their defense will pound Campbell and Collins won't get it done either. Statement game here for the Broncos as they will get back on track in a big way with some solid D and a couple of Redskin turnovers, which will prove costly to them and Vegas. 4 units.Loss.



Bengals +7 The Steelers are on a short week, but they have found their stride. If the Bengals were favored I would take the Steelers here. The Bengals are the new Eagles because they play well as underdogs. The loss of Odom will show itself here as Medenhall is turning into quite the back. The Bengals bottled up Rice last week as well as Flacco, but the Steelers have alot of weapons which will make it difficult to focus on Medenhall when you have Miller, Ward, Holmes and Wallace running around. The Bengals pass defense has been good, we can partially thank a good pass rush for that. Both teams are playing very well right now and this is a rivalry game,which means it should be very tight. I think the Steelers take this one by 2 and we take Vegas by alot. 3 units.Win.



Bills +7 I know, VY just doesn't lose as a starter, very true. However, I am not sure if the Titans are ready to be TD favs here. I was on them last week as they beat the 49ers, but I was getting 4 points. The Bills rush D is iffy at best. Their pass D is very stingy and lets not forget, I always fade the Bills when they are at home and ride them when they are on the road. For some reason they love to cover on the road 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games (Jets, Carolina to name a couple) The key here for the Bills will be stopping Johnson. VY likes to scramble and spread the defense. Hopefully the Bills can limit him and force VY into 3rd and long to move the chains. Edwards will be back for this contest, maybe he will actually throw a deep ball in this game and test the Titans secondary, most likely he will just dump it off to Lynch and Jackson, lets hope that is enough to move the chains. Dick Jauron is 3-0 ATS coming off a bye. Unfortunately for Vegas The Blanket doesn't have a bye week. 1 unit. Loss.




Saints -14 I have already locked this game in. The Saints need to come out strong here, people are starting to question them because they have been falling behind early, albeit against some quality opponents but they have been behind none the less. As long as the Saints can limit Steven Jackson they should be OK, Sedrick Ellis has been out and Denagelo Williams ran wild against them last week, but the Rams do not have and O-line like the Panthers and they also do not have a Steve Smith to take the focus off of. The Saints should focus on stopping Jackson and force Bulger to throw on them. The Rams and Bulger will have trouble with the Saints pass rush as well as their improved secondary. I just don't see how the Rams can keep Brees on the sideline long enough to keep this game from being a laugher, I will be laughing to the bank with some more of that Vegas cash!!! 5 units.Loss.




Buccaneers +10 I cannot believe I just typed that. The Bucs cost me a lot of money last week, which is inexcusable. I watched the whole game and the team was surprisingly motivated all game long and really helped out their young QB Freeman who probably gained alot of confidence. The Bucs made some new additions to their team in the bye week and it showed. The secondary played well, special teams was special, the D-line got alot of pressure on Rodgers (which isn't hard) and the O-line played well protecting Freeman who was sacked only one time. The Dolphins are coming off a really tough loss and now they have to get up for a 1-7 team? I think they will be flat here. I am expecting a nice game from the Bucs secondary which should frustrate Henne and is young WR corps. I have no doubt the Dolphins will win this game, but 10 points is alot for them to handle. The Dolphins struggle to cover spreads of more than 3, so that fact coupled with the psychology edge should play into our hands and bank accounts here. The Dolphins also struggle against NFC opponents 0-6 ATS under head coach Sparano. I am going to wait his game out and hope the public goes the other way and drives the spread to +11, when that happens I will snatch it up with a 4 unit play.Win.




Cowboys -3 The Packers are done, this is another game in which I already locked it in with a 5 unit play for even money. Green Bay couldn't keep the Bucs D-line away from Rodgers, so how exactly are they gonna stop Demarcus Ware?? I see Rodgers throwing another three pic's in this game maybe 2 for ball hawking Mike Jenkins FROM???? USF. The Cowboys secondary will give Rodgers all kinds of problems in this game, I see alot of coverage sacks here. With the Packers struggling to score points I think Romo will continue his solid, interception free play here, Miles Austin needs a big game and I don't see the Packers stopping the Cowboys rushing game because they couldn't do it against the Bucs. I don't care if they are in Lambeau, won't matter. Packers will be outplayed on both sides of the ball. 5 units.Loss.





Ravens -11 Another game I locked in early. The Ravens are a proud team full of veterans who are looking to make a statement. What better team to do that against then the Browns, what better time to do it then on Monday night football? The Browns are a mess and are starting Brady Quinn who will get eaten alive as he is afraid to throw the ball down field, he won't do that with Ed Reed hanging around back there. Rice should have a bounce back game here which will be good for Flacco allowing him time to throw by using the play action. The Browns have a decent defense but their offense is so inept they are always on the field, that will be the downfall here as the Ravens need this win to salvage any Wildcard hopes. Ravens easy. 5 units.Win.

Season Record: 48-20-1

I have posted 8 games so far and will return with two more, I like the Eagles, but have some more digging to do for my 10th game. See you soon.

NCAA Week #11 Guest Pick-a-thon

After I decided to defecate in my pants last Saturday from 12pm until the end of the Chokelahoma game I had a genius idea, why not have guest pickers to choose 5 games each this Saturday, could they possibly do any worse? My guest pickers will be Kayleigh my 2.5 year old Siberian Husky and Diamond my 9 year old Lab-mix. They have not yet earned handicapping monikers, but if they have a good Saturday they might replace The Blanket. I took my hard drive apart yesterday looking for a smaller version of Soundwave from Transformers 2 "Revenge of the Fallen". After watching Transformers 2 the other night I became paranoid that a Decepticon had wrapped himself around my hard drive in an effort to pass my picks on to Vegas so some point shaving could then follow and my money would travel through the cables into Bodog's bank account. Kayleigh and Diamond will be picking games by eating one of two milk bones placed atop a face up index card, the index card will have a team name on it; the one that is eaten first will be their pick.





Bearcats -9 Historically this is always a close match-up, the last blowout was a win by WV 35-0 in 2005. These are two different programs now. The Bearcats squeaked by a pesky UCONN team by 2 points last week. I am thinking that the Bearcats got the scare they needed. Coach Kelly should have his troops ready for this Friday night contest. Zach Collaros has been on fire since taking over for an injured Tony Pike. Pike will be available for this game as well. The Mountaineers have not been that impressive this year, and I don't like them in this spot on national tv. Brown and Devine have ankle problems so who knows what to expect from them and they struggled with L'ville last week. I think WVU is in a rebuilding year and Cincy should cover the 9 here.Loss.



Volunteers +5 Snead has had alot of trouble with stout defenses all year. So I am sure Kiffin will have a special treat for him. The Volunteers have been covering machines as of late. they also have figured out how to score points as they blew out SC and Memphis. So I like getting 5 points here. Ole Miss really struggles to move the ball against good defensive teams (Alabama, SC) so I look for that trend to continue here.Loss.



Stanford +11 I guess I haven't learned my lesson with taking road teams. Given USC's recent performances though I think it will be tough for them to beat this number. Stanford butchered the Ducks last week, and did exactly what they needed to do to win, which was get out to an early lead and make Oregon catch up. Andrew Luck looks to be the best QB in the Pac-10 he really made some spectacular throws last week against a good Oregon defense. Can anyone tackle Toby Gearhart? It doesn't like it. Lamicheal James ran wild against the Trojans when they played the Ducks, so hopefully Gearhart follows suit. USC also really struggled against the Sun Devils last week, I think the Cardinal can hang with them.Win.



Auburn +5 The Tigers have been a little Jekyll and Hyde this year, but Georgia has been a train wreck. Even though this contest is "between the hedges" I don't see the Bulldogs being able to contain all of Auburn's weapons. AJ Green will make plays in this game but he is all the Bulldogs really have. Richt needs to reload his team. I take the points here on another visitor.Loss.



Pitt -7 I enjoyed watching Notre Lame lose last week to Navy, bye bye BCS!! Hello University of Phoenix Community College Poly -Tech School for Mimes/ Jiffy Pop Bowl! Good luck with that Coach Front Butt. Pitt will run wild at home on the Irish and Bill Stull should have another great day. I think the Irish players will mail this one in and except their invitation to a Bowl Game at 11am on Thanksgiving Day. Panthers maul Coach Front Butt and his band of overrated Bible thumpers. Loss.



*******Bonus Pick******
South Carolina +16 The Ol' Ball Coach should have his team primed and ready to go against his former employers. The Gators have no reason to cover this game, at this point they just need to win every game from here on out by 1 point and they will be in the title game. No more style points, and you can bet that the SEC refs won't let the Gators lose anyway. South Carolina needs to have a good showing after the beat down the Volunteers put on them. I think the Gamecocks can keep it within 2 TD's with their defense plus they will be at home in front of a raucous crowd.
Win.


*************************************************************************************
As advertised here are my dogs picks, first we will have Kayleigh, my 2.5 year old Siberian Husky, she just took her plastic visor off and the pencil from behind her ear out, she is now a professional prognosticator:

Northern Illinois (Huskies) -17
UCONN (Huskies) Pk (I tried to tell her they are on bye week, she would have none of it.)
Washington (Huskies) +12 (I'm noticing a trend here.)
South Florida -1 (At least she believes in Daddy's Alma Mater.)
Perdue +3 (Apparently she doesn't care for Sparty)

Now for Diamond's Picks, lets see what the grizzled old vet has up her paw!!
South Florida -1 (She must be tired of hearing me complain about my team losing.)
West Virginia +9 (Smart dog, she is fading my pick!!)
Tennessee +5
Notre Dame +7 (Pick #2 of mine that she has faded)
Stanford +11 (I think she prefers treats from my right hand for some reason!)



Enjoy my picks money lovers, I am due for a good Saturday. Let's hope I can get off the snide here.

Monday, November 9, 2009

Weekend Recap NCAA Week #10 / NFL Week #9

I walked into a Vegas ambush Saturday as did fellow handicappers The Joker and The Chicago Kid. Billy Vegas managed a 4-4 ATS day. I went 1-4 on the pick 'em challenge and 2-9 on the day, thanks to a last minute TD by Houston to cover the Pick @ Tulsa. Pathetic none the less. I went 6-2 on posted NFL action and made some nice money with an unpublished Steelers cover tonight to cut my losses to 5 units for the weekend. I am also embarrassed that I missed my pick of the month, as the Packers had an epic pants shit in Tampa. That just goes to show you that you can handicap a game to the T and the gambling god will smite you. I hit 2 out of 3 on my NFL live dogs on Sunday, winning with the Chargers and Titans and losing with the Texans. I will have to knock on some wood that the Seahawks and Chiefs covered, I got lucky there. Billy Vegas has petitioned me to go back to our old formula of him doing the college games and myself doing the NFL action. I honestly could have had a better Saturday if I let my dogs pick games against the number, maybe I will try that. That was my worst single performance of my handicapping life, it was almost surreal. I turned off the Badgers game with them pushing and took a quick nap as The Blanket has not been feeling well and had to rest up for one of my friends engagement parties, poor guy. I checked my phone for the scores at about 7:30 and the look on my face was that of pure disbelief, the color was gone and I was as white as a sheet. I normally only bet 1 unit on each college game, I might cut it to .5 units from now on as I plan on scaling my college action back to 5 games from now till bowl season. Remember what I said about Bowl Season Vegas, write it down and put it on your refrigerator. I will ramp up my NFL Picks probably going to 10 games this week. The spreads are up and I will start doing some digging tomorrow. Until that time.

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Free Money Report NFL Picks for Week #9

After a 4-1 start on my 1 o'clock games last week I felt pretty good even though I didn't care a whole lot for many of the games last week. This week is much different, there are several games that I like alot, one of them will be my November Free Money Selection of the Month! My NFL action has been really good so far this year, but I have hit a break even point the last three weeks and I think I will be enjoying some serious money collecting this week. Vegas made some money back last week going 4-4 which is a good week for them when you factor in the vigorish and busted teasers and Parlay plays as well (Thanks Colts). There are a couple of games that the public is pounding like they already know the outcome, we will exploit that and turn it into profits as the public always looks past the quality of Offensive and Defensive lines when making their uninformed decisions. Here we go with this weeks winners:



Chiefs +7 The Jags are awful, they hate using players with hyphens in their names to move the ball and generate points. Not saying the Chiefs will win, but I do not think the Jags are a touchdown better than KC. I feel this is a trap game to get the public to make a play on the Jags, both teams have problems against the run, the Jags can't get any pressure on the QB so Cassell should have a decent day. Jaamal Charles will get the start and should be productive as the Jags rank 24th against the run, the Chiefs are no better at stopping the run, but have made improvements as of late. Jacksonville has alot of trouble when they are favorites of 6.5 points or more. Lets not forget this is a Chiefs team that gave Dallas fits a couple of weeks ago, while that was at Arrowhead the Jags are not the Cowboys. 2 units.Win.




Ravens -3 What a difference having Jared Gaither back has made as the Ravens took apart the Broncos last week. This is a revenge game for a team that holds a grudge. The Bengals are sans Antwan Odom for this contest which will be problematic. If you remember I called the Bengals to cover last time these two played each other. I am going the other way here. The Bengals are good against the run, but Rice has proven to be an excellent player and can bust one at any time. The Ravens secondary is going to be tested here, they will need an excellent pass rush to help them out. The Ravens really gave Orton problems last week, but Palmer can stretch the field much more than Orton. The Ravens looked really well moving the ball with ease on Denvers stout D last week in the 2nd half, which was surprising since the Broncos have been shutting down teams in the 2nd half. Hopefully the Ravens have woke up!! 2 units.Loss.




Texans +10 Huge game for the Texans here. Good to see Kubiak bench fumble machine Slaton. Ryan Moats came in to have a huge day, but Buffalo's run stop unit isn't very good. So he might be challenged against the Colts. Slaton will have to catch alot of balls out of the backfield with Owen Daniels out. Schaub torched the Bills excellent pass D last week, using Johnson and Walter is a must for this game. I still have my doubts about the Colts pass D, we shall see what happens. Hopefully Chris Brown doesn't make an appearance in this game, I don't want to see him at all since he pants shit on that 1st and goal against the Cards a couple of weeks back. Manning did not look good last week against a team whose best corner, Nate Clements, was out. The Texans have all of a sudden figured out how to stop the run so Addai might not have a big day. This will leave it all up to Manning. The Colts have New England and Baltimore coming up, so they might not be taking the Texans seriously, but we take money seriously. This is the Texans biggest game of the year as far as they are concerned, I expect them to perform. 3 units.Win.




Packers -10 The Packers do well against bad teams, and the Bucs are a dumpster fire. I expect Rodgers to have a huge game here, they need a bounce back game after the loss the Brett and the Vikings. A trip to Tampa will cure that. Ready for that juicy tidbit I talked about last night? Well here it is, as per the Pewter Report, the Bucs and head coach Raheem Morris felt it would be appropriate to only practice for 2.5 hours since their loss across the pond!!!! My co-ed softball team practices more than that! The Bucs are in complete disarray as head coach and law breaking CB Aqib Talib have been fighting since Talib broke curfew in London. Also, the Bucs are starting Josh Freeman, who is garbage. Josh Freeman was so worried about making his debut that he flew home for the bye week to visit family. Nice!! I'm pretty sure he didn't face any 3-4 defenses at K State. Freeman will be throwing to sub-par WR's who happen to be covered by Al Harris and Charles Woodson, good luck with that. This is my November Pick of the Month. 10 units. Loss.




Cardinals +3 Billy Vegas won't like this pick, but time for some fact facing. The Bears offensive line really struggled against the Browns. Shaun Rodgers was in the backfield on every play, as a result Cutler was hurried in alot of his throws. The Bears offense was inept against the Browns who had their defense on the field the whole time because Derek Anderson sucks at life. The Cardinals will be looking to bounce back as Warner did his best to impersonate Delhomme last week. The Bears also struggle against the run, but the Cards are not very proficient at running the ball anyway. Ron Turner is awful and should feel guilty for stealing money from the Bears, his play calling will continue to be the downfall of the Bears in this contest. The Bears are good against the pass, but I feel the D-line won't be able to get to Warner and he has alot of weapons at his disposal, tight game, but I like the points here. 2 units.Win.





Seahawks -9 The Seahawks are still in the hunt for the NFC West oddly enough. Detroit is horrible, with Smith and Johnson out they will continue that trend. The Lions dropped 10 balls last week versus the Rams. The Seahawks will look to rebound at home, where they are usually pretty tough; after the blowout at Dallas they need to make a statement. Hasselbeck is due for a big game, he should be able to torch the Lions punchless secondary. The Lions rank last against the run, so even Julius Jones should have a decent day against them. Hopefully the crowd at Qwest field can induce some false starts out of the Lions and induce some money into my pockets. This game has blowout stamped all over it. 2 units.Win.




Titans +4 Shady line here, I really liked this game at first, but checking the trends Jeff Fisher really struggles on the West Coast. Despite my jokes about VY, the guy wins games, much like Kyle Orton. The 49ers played the Colts tough and put alot of effort into that came so there could be some hangover here. The Titans are re energized after they destroyed Jax last week, this team looks like they believe in themselves again. One thing that pushed me to make a play on the Titans is the fact that both starting tackles are out for the 49ers, might not sound like a big deal but I am big on offensive lines, they are cash cows. So that being said the Titans should have success pressuring Smith. Gore should have a decent game, but the Titans have a pretty solid run defense. Another thing I really like about this game is did you notice that Chris Johnson ran wild against the Jags? I know Jax run stop unit isn't good, but VY's ability to scramble will spread out the defense opening up wider running lanes for Johnson to run through. 4 units. Win.





Chargers +5 Poor Giants, I faded them last week, the public has yet to follow suit, silly public, they hate money possession. The Giants weakness is the deep ball, the Chargers strength? The deep ball. Chris Chambers was cut and replaced with a Vincent Jackson clone in Malcom Floyd who is also 6'5". Eli is hurt, that heel is really bothering him and it shows, he has been inaccurate against good teams with his passes. The Giants running attack has been less than Giant as of late. The Chargers also have not had much success in the running department either. Rivers should have a huge game here as the Giants pass rush has been less than stellar as of late. I might make a small play on the Chargers as a live dog on the ML here as well. 5 units.Win.


Season Record 44-16-1
That's what I have so far, I am still kicking around three games and will probably post them later. I like the Pats -11, Panthers +13, and Steelers -3 as well but I need to do a little more digging before I commit.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

College Football Week #10 Pick 'em Challenge

In an effort to redeem my good name I will be going 5-0 in my pick 'em challenge this week. I will be posting extra action above and beyond this posting as well, so fret not. I plan on having a money orgy in my account this weekend, I need a cash injection as the same money has been hanging out in my account for the past three weeks. It is time for them to make some new friends who will be imported from Vegas, tax-free. I am a tad backed up on my action right now as I have only handicapped 4 NFL games thus far, one of which will be my NFL pick of the month, thanks to a juicy tidbit I discovered. Here is what I have to bring myself and my ego back to respectability:



Wisconsin -10 Indiana had an epic pants shitting last week, in what was their Superbowl and they blew their load ( and my cover, had them +18, thanks for the Push Vegas ) against the Hawkeyes. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing Indiana on the road. John Clay puts the Hoosiers in a bad spot, they will have to load up in the box to stop Clay, but then again Indiana is horrible versus the pass. As you probably witnessed when Stanzi threw lame passes to wide open receivers in the 4th quarter last week. Indiana hates playing football for more than 3 quarters. The Badgers coming off a beatdown of Purdon't will be hungry for more. Wiscy has beaten Indy by more than 10 points every year since 2005, lets roll with that trend.Loss.




SMU -17 Last week I did not have my reverse money train Rice available due to a bye week. I love betting against Rice, they could play me by myself and I would cover. Bo Levi Mitchell and June Jones should have a field day at home. Rice hates scoring points and playing defense, I think its safe to say they will continue that tradition.Loss.




Oklahoma State -7 We are getting good value on the Pokes here, after they got destroyed by an overrated Texas team on Saturday night. The Pokes embarrassed me, I knew once I placed the bet it was bye bye money. That's what happens when I 2nd guess myself. Not having Bryant and Hunter forced Zach Robinson to do everything himself, he wound throwing 4 picks en route to a blowout. The Pokes destroyed the Cyclones last year, beating them by 42 in Stillwater. The Cyclones were covering for me early in the season but I faded them last week, just in time as they got smashed by Texas A&M. I was lucky to escape the Nebraska game with my money intact as the Cornhuskers were allergic to the football and kept dropping it. Lucky for them Iowa State is anemic on offense, too bad my bank account won't be after this game.Win.




Oregon -7 The Ducks are blowing everyone out, to include USC. To some this might be a breather alert, to me its a cover and profit. The Ducks are 6-1 ATS when playing Stanford. I don't think very highly of the Cardinal, they were unimpressive against Oregon State and incapable of playing from behind and they lost to Wake Forest. Oregon is playing with fire right now and are in the drivers seat in the Pac-10 for a Rosebowl berth against Iowa. I don't see the Ducks falling asleep behind the wheel here. Massoli has been great and should receive some Heisman consideration, the Ducks also found a great RB to replace Blount. Stanford's offense is sluggish and will not be able to keep up with Oregon firepower.Loss.




Oklahoma -6 Wow Vegas hates money. Why does Nebraska get so much credit, they haven't done shit. The Sooners defense will crush them, if they struggled against Iowa State how will they score points here. Small Game Bob Stoops should be up for this game against a Big 12 North opponent as the Sooners can ill afford to drop another game. Donkey Kong Suh is fresh off a brush with the law, so who knows if he will be playing or not. Oh, and by the way the Sooners are 7-1-1 in their last 9 road tilts, I think the K-State game got us some value here.Loss.


******EXTRA PICKS******** (for those of you who can't get enough free money!)

Texas A&M -3 The Aggies seem to have found their stride after getting embarrassed by K State. The Buffalo's are a toenail clipping fire. They are in total disarray, they have major QB problems and their starting running back quit the team this week. A&M has been one of the few teams in the Big 12 with consistent QB play, Jarrod Johnson has been putting up solid numbers this season, and I think Colorado has given up on the season with all of the problems.Loss.

UTEP -7 The Miners knocked off Houston earlier this year, so we know they can put up some points, they also knocked off Tulsa. Lets hope they don't sleep walk through their game with Tulane, as Tulane is awful and has been blown out by every opponent except for Army (who they beat by 1 point). Lets hope they lose by 20 again here.Loss.

Duke +10 UNC has a good defense but has alot of trouble moving the ball and they are very inconsistent. Meanwhile Duke has been quietly covering away and they played VT very tough and they also beat another defensive team in Virginia. Lets hope Lewis can score some points and the defense keeps the game within a touchdown reach.Loss.

GT -14 The Jackets have been scoring a ton of points, they have been giving some up as well though. Two of Wake's best players in QB Skinner and WR Williams are both out for this contest. So I am not to sure how they will be able to keep up with the Tech offense. Also this is an ACC game so I expect Tech to take Wake for real instead of playing sloppy like they did at Vandy last week.Loss.

Season Record 31-31-2
Pick 'em Chalenge 2-7-1
Well that is that and this is it. I'm out. I am gassed from two mid-terms this week. About time for me to think about fading grad school! I'll be back later with some more college action and a full slate of NFL action, from the looks of it Thanksgiving is this Sunday!! Thanks Vegas!!!