Thanksgiving Day and I have had nothing to eat yet, this computer isn't looking half bad right now. Back at this week, getting my picks in with at least 24 hours to spare. Locked my picks in on Tuesday morning, since then the lines have moved the on publicly backed dogs, which scares me a little bit. Oh well, we will drive on any how. No NFL picks this weekend either, just haven't liked any spreads as of late. Here is what I have for College action:
Arkansas +13 Last week at Miss State was a classic look ahead game for the Razorbacks, they didn't take the bait................Arkansas came out focused on both ends of the field. I am aware they play much better at home, like any team. However, they always play LSU tough. Here is my thinking on why I am taking the points and Arkansas when I took LSU +5 when they played Alabama, even though Alabama thumped Arkansas. Still with me? Alabama has a NFL secondary which managed to cause coverage pressure, LSU while an excellent defense just does not have as good a secondary as 'Bama. Therefore, I do not foresee them being able to handle Wilson, Gragg, Childs and Adams as well as the Tide. Make sense? Alot of pressure on LSU here, day game............that makes Death Valley more like Happy Valley. LSU wins a tight game, 3-5 points will be the difference.Loss.
4 Units.
Cal +6 Cal has covered 4 of 5 and been pretty competitive this season, Arizona State has lost 4 of 5 failing to cover their last 3. Arizona State's last win was against mighty Colorado. I get it, the Sun Devils have a 12' 8" QB and an overrated LB..........ok. I realize that Cal is not a strong road team but I still think we are getting 3 more points our way from Vegas. I'll take it!Win.
4 Units.
Virginia +5 Simply put I am not sold on the Hokies and they will struggle in this game to a sleeper Cavalier team. Virginia is a 5 point dog in their own house. Staunch defense and solid QB play from Rocco will get this team and us a W. The Cavs new coach is a good story and has this team focused, VT won't be able to count on points off Beamer Ball as this Cavalier team is too disciplined.Loss.
3 Units.
Notre Dame +8 Stanford better be careful here, their season is all but over anyways but I am sure they do not want a 2nd loss here. Notre Dame struggles against fast defenses (USF) but Stanford has a slow defense which struggles to cover the edges. I have been waiting for the Cardinal to get exposed all season long, the Ducks beat them soundly. I think they will be in for a surprise with ND giving them all they can handle, Luck has not been impressive this year and is missing his best WR, so the Stanford offense could struggle in the passing game and ND is decent against the run, which always helps when facing a running back by committee. Loss.
4 Units.
Duke +13 The Blue Devils are 3-8 but they do like to hang around like a fly that will not be swatted. Rivalry game here as the dislike between the two schools is heating up with BB season underway. UNC has already mailed it in as they already have become bowl eligible in what has been a disappointing season for them. Duke won't lay down and forces you to beat them down till the end of the game, 13 points is too much in this contest.Loss.
3 Units.
There you have it my friends, enjoy your Thanksgivings and stuffed wallets. Also keep an eye on the Texas A&M vs. Texas game, that line is getting a little high, if it hits +10, might be time for a small play! If anybody sees Joker out and about give him a hug as he seems like he is about to set himself ablaze. I think all this Skyrim playing has had an affect on his handicapping skills!
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Thursday, November 17, 2011
NCAA Week #12 Pick 'em
Down to the wire getting my picks in again this week, good thing all my games are on Saturday I guess. Anyway, I am pressed for time so lets get to the picks:
L'ville +1 L'ville has been playing some decent ball and have improved at the QB position this year and their defense has been coming along as well. I like them on the road against UCONN here as the Huskies haven't exactly been a powerhouse either. Cardinals outright.Win.
3 Units.
Arkansas -13 I wanted to punch myself for not taking the Razorbacks last week, oh well. The Bulldogs are an eyesore on offense and Tyler Wilson and his record setting WR's should have success against the "vaunted" defense of the Bulldogs. Just can't fathom how MSU will keep pace on the scoreboard with that offense. Arkansas will big play their way to a comfortable win.Win.
3 Units.
Vanderbilt -1 The Commodores are one of my best kept secrets this season, defense travels well and they will be up for the challenge in Knoxville against their in state rival. Vandy and Jordan Rodgers are heading in the right direction, towards my bank! Loss.
3 Units.
Miami -1 I took alot of road teams with small spreads this weekend. While Miami's record is not impressive their schedule is. USF is garbage, the team does not care for the coach and it shows in their play. Miami will exact revenge for last year in this game. Miami has been a pretty consistent team ATS this year while USF has not. Canes win comfortably.Win.
4 Units.
Kansas State +8 The Wildcats continue to get zero respect from Vegas and I have been riding them to a payday week in and week out. They have lost 2 games to teams from Oklahoma, maybe you had heard of them. Texas is overrated as per usual as Mizzou spelled out last week. I like the Cats to keep this game within 3 points. Win.
3 Units.
There you have it, let's hope I can pull even with that Chicago Kid character this weekend as he has been applying the pressure to me all season long!
L'ville +1 L'ville has been playing some decent ball and have improved at the QB position this year and their defense has been coming along as well. I like them on the road against UCONN here as the Huskies haven't exactly been a powerhouse either. Cardinals outright.Win.
3 Units.
Arkansas -13 I wanted to punch myself for not taking the Razorbacks last week, oh well. The Bulldogs are an eyesore on offense and Tyler Wilson and his record setting WR's should have success against the "vaunted" defense of the Bulldogs. Just can't fathom how MSU will keep pace on the scoreboard with that offense. Arkansas will big play their way to a comfortable win.Win.
3 Units.
Vanderbilt -1 The Commodores are one of my best kept secrets this season, defense travels well and they will be up for the challenge in Knoxville against their in state rival. Vandy and Jordan Rodgers are heading in the right direction, towards my bank! Loss.
3 Units.
Miami -1 I took alot of road teams with small spreads this weekend. While Miami's record is not impressive their schedule is. USF is garbage, the team does not care for the coach and it shows in their play. Miami will exact revenge for last year in this game. Miami has been a pretty consistent team ATS this year while USF has not. Canes win comfortably.Win.
4 Units.
Kansas State +8 The Wildcats continue to get zero respect from Vegas and I have been riding them to a payday week in and week out. They have lost 2 games to teams from Oklahoma, maybe you had heard of them. Texas is overrated as per usual as Mizzou spelled out last week. I like the Cats to keep this game within 3 points. Win.
3 Units.
There you have it, let's hope I can pull even with that Chicago Kid character this weekend as he has been applying the pressure to me all season long!
Thursday, November 10, 2011
NCAA Week #11 Picks & NFL Week 10 Pick 'em
Decent week last week, overdue as well. Here is my latest attempt on getting to the top of the food chain in our yearly handicapping challenge. Actually getting my picks up in time for once, that is called progress my friends! Here is what I have for you this weekend:
Houston -35 The Cougars keep lighting up the scoreboard and that trend will continue this week as I think they will win this game by 42-45 points over the Green Wave, Tulane is a bad team and Houston really needs the style points to keep their boat in the race.Win.
2 Units.
West Virginia +4 The Mountaineers need this game badly to get a shot at a BCS bowl game, they have the offense to do it, but will their defense show up? I don't think Cincy is 4 points better than WVU at this point. Getting some value here after the Mountaineers lost to L'ville last week, who is a bit of an underrated team defensively and they have been getting some decent QB play as of late too. WVU keeps it within 3.Win.
2 Units.
Oklahoma State -17 Pokes survived a scare last weekend, Tech got blown out yet again. I'm not buying the Red Raiders win versus Oklahoma, since then they have been laying eggs true to form. The Cowboys are sitting pretty at #2 and won't take Tech lightly. Pokes cruise.Win.
3 Units.
Kansas State +5 The Wildcats are at home and coming off a close loss to Ok. State. Here comes A&M who has folded up shop for this season and will be without their leading rusher. I know KSU will do some scoring against a permeable A&M defense, they keep it within 5.Win.
3 Units.
TCU +16 Boise St. has failed to cover in 3 of 5 games, 2 of which were at home. You don't think TCU would love to ruin their season. Even at home 16 points is too much for 2 programs who know each other well. TCU keeps it close throughout.Win.
3 Units.
NFL Picks:
Houston -35 The Cougars keep lighting up the scoreboard and that trend will continue this week as I think they will win this game by 42-45 points over the Green Wave, Tulane is a bad team and Houston really needs the style points to keep their boat in the race.Win.
2 Units.
West Virginia +4 The Mountaineers need this game badly to get a shot at a BCS bowl game, they have the offense to do it, but will their defense show up? I don't think Cincy is 4 points better than WVU at this point. Getting some value here after the Mountaineers lost to L'ville last week, who is a bit of an underrated team defensively and they have been getting some decent QB play as of late too. WVU keeps it within 3.Win.
2 Units.
Oklahoma State -17 Pokes survived a scare last weekend, Tech got blown out yet again. I'm not buying the Red Raiders win versus Oklahoma, since then they have been laying eggs true to form. The Cowboys are sitting pretty at #2 and won't take Tech lightly. Pokes cruise.Win.
3 Units.
Kansas State +5 The Wildcats are at home and coming off a close loss to Ok. State. Here comes A&M who has folded up shop for this season and will be without their leading rusher. I know KSU will do some scoring against a permeable A&M defense, they keep it within 5.Win.
3 Units.
TCU +16 Boise St. has failed to cover in 3 of 5 games, 2 of which were at home. You don't think TCU would love to ruin their season. Even at home 16 points is too much for 2 programs who know each other well. TCU keeps it close throughout.Win.
3 Units.
NFL Picks:
Saturday, November 5, 2011
NCAA Week 10 Pick em
Little late posting my picks as I have been under the weather. Miserable week last week that's pretty much been a microcosm of my season. Lets get to my latest attempt to go 0-5.
Tulsa +2 This game has already been played and I do have my bet slip handy for any doubters! I took Tulsa bc UCF has been unable to produce any offense with consistency this season an Tulsa has plenty of offense. Win.
3 Units.
Vanderbilt +13 The Commodores are a solid defensive squad, with Jordan Rodgers at QB now they should be able to move the ball. Florida makes too many mistakes, even though they are home I have my doubts about how excited they will be to play Vandy. Vandy keeps it to close for comfort1! Win.
3 Units.
Rutgers +3 Why is USF favored on the road? How many conference wins do they have again? Enough said, Rutgers is no powerhouse but they are at home against an underwhelming opponent, Rutgers outright. Win.
3 Units.
LSU +5 I can't see this game turning into a shootout, both teams are very talented on both sides of the ball. Its in Crimson Tide country so that explains 3 of the 5 points here, not sure where Vegas feels LSU needs another 2. Lets not forget that LSU has beaten 5 ranked opponents this year and always plays Alabama tough. I will take the points here. Win.
3 Units.
Houston -28 UAB surprised UCF by finding an offense, they won't be as fortunate here as Houston looks to bulid on their undefeated effort thus far, I don't see the Blazers being in this game for long, could be covering by halftime! Win.
3 Units.
NFL Week 9 Picks:
Falcons -7 Colts are bad, Falcons need a win. Win.
Buccaneers +9 Too many points here, Tampa just beat Brees and company 3 weeks ago, this is a FG win for the Saints. Loss.
Bengals +3 Cincy is a solid squad, not sure why the Titans are favored here. Dalton has played well and seems to enjoy AJ Green's company and the offense-less Titans will not be able to move the ball against the Bengals D. Win.
Bears +8 Too many points here again, Philly getting too much credit off their Dallas win ands the Bears always play the Eagles tough.Win.
Tulsa +2 This game has already been played and I do have my bet slip handy for any doubters! I took Tulsa bc UCF has been unable to produce any offense with consistency this season an Tulsa has plenty of offense. Win.
3 Units.
Vanderbilt +13 The Commodores are a solid defensive squad, with Jordan Rodgers at QB now they should be able to move the ball. Florida makes too many mistakes, even though they are home I have my doubts about how excited they will be to play Vandy. Vandy keeps it to close for comfort1! Win.
3 Units.
Rutgers +3 Why is USF favored on the road? How many conference wins do they have again? Enough said, Rutgers is no powerhouse but they are at home against an underwhelming opponent, Rutgers outright. Win.
3 Units.
LSU +5 I can't see this game turning into a shootout, both teams are very talented on both sides of the ball. Its in Crimson Tide country so that explains 3 of the 5 points here, not sure where Vegas feels LSU needs another 2. Lets not forget that LSU has beaten 5 ranked opponents this year and always plays Alabama tough. I will take the points here. Win.
3 Units.
Houston -28 UAB surprised UCF by finding an offense, they won't be as fortunate here as Houston looks to bulid on their undefeated effort thus far, I don't see the Blazers being in this game for long, could be covering by halftime! Win.
3 Units.
NFL Week 9 Picks:
Falcons -7 Colts are bad, Falcons need a win. Win.
Buccaneers +9 Too many points here, Tampa just beat Brees and company 3 weeks ago, this is a FG win for the Saints. Loss.
Bengals +3 Cincy is a solid squad, not sure why the Titans are favored here. Dalton has played well and seems to enjoy AJ Green's company and the offense-less Titans will not be able to move the ball against the Bengals D. Win.
Bears +8 Too many points here again, Philly getting too much credit off their Dallas win ands the Bears always play the Eagles tough.Win.
Friday, October 28, 2011
NCAA Week 9 Pick 'em
3-2 last week, started off strong and fizzled out late. I hit my big 8 unit play and still have some ground to make up in my pick em league. Started out with a win last night as Houston covered the 28.5 vs Rice. Lets see what I have on tap for Saturday:
Michigan State +4 Not sure about the Huskers laying 4 here even if they are at home. Sparty is a consistent team and Martinez worries me at QB for Nebraska. Sparty outright.
5 Units.
Badgers -7 Another road team for me as I look for Wiscy to rebound in a big way. I don't think the Buckeyes match up well here. The Badgers will be angry and looking to make a statement here. This could get ugly.
4 Units.
Clemson -4 Why stop now right? Hopefully Clemson's defense shows up here because if Clemson falls behind early they might be in trouble against the GT clock eating offense. Too many weapons on the Clemson offense I like them here.
3 Units.
Kansas State +14 Oklahoma on the road after a deflating loss to Tech, KSU continues to get no respect from Vegas and have enough offense to stay with the Sooners. I'll take the points.
3 Units.
Oklahoma State -14 Recurring theme here, Cowboys offense is strong, Baylor will hang around in the first half but the Pokes will pull away in the second half.
3 Units.
Bonus Pick:
Stanford -8 This one almost made the cut, I like this game but its not in my top 5. This game will be a repeat of last year.
Michigan State +4 Not sure about the Huskers laying 4 here even if they are at home. Sparty is a consistent team and Martinez worries me at QB for Nebraska. Sparty outright.
5 Units.
Badgers -7 Another road team for me as I look for Wiscy to rebound in a big way. I don't think the Buckeyes match up well here. The Badgers will be angry and looking to make a statement here. This could get ugly.
4 Units.
Clemson -4 Why stop now right? Hopefully Clemson's defense shows up here because if Clemson falls behind early they might be in trouble against the GT clock eating offense. Too many weapons on the Clemson offense I like them here.
3 Units.
Kansas State +14 Oklahoma on the road after a deflating loss to Tech, KSU continues to get no respect from Vegas and have enough offense to stay with the Sooners. I'll take the points.
3 Units.
Oklahoma State -14 Recurring theme here, Cowboys offense is strong, Baylor will hang around in the first half but the Pokes will pull away in the second half.
3 Units.
Bonus Pick:
Stanford -8 This one almost made the cut, I like this game but its not in my top 5. This game will be a repeat of last year.
Wednesday, October 19, 2011
NCAA Week #8 Pick 'em
Decent Saturday last week going 4-2, maybe I am turning the corner halfway through the season. Who knows, but lets hope my winning continues. Lets get to the picks.
Cincinnati +3 USF can't stop the run, Isiah Pead will rack up the mileage, enough to upgrade to 1st class on the flight home. Collaras is mobile and will through all over the non existent defense. The Bulls will struggle to move the ball and will ultimately be embarrassed on Homecoming yet again.Win.
8 Units.
Washington +21 The Huskies are playing well in conference play, they won't pull out the victory here, but they have enough offense to stay within 21. Stanford starts slow and has not been as good as everyone thought this year, tight game going into the half, Stanford pulls away in the 2nd and wins by 17.Loss.
2 Units.
Oklahoma State -7 Another road team here, for some reason the Tigers get alot of credit from Vegas, Oklahoma State just has too many weapons on offense. Cowboys by 10.Win.
3 Units.
Kansas State -11 I have been riding the 'Cats all year, why stop now? Statement game here as the in state rival Jayhawks will be at home, won't matter though. Wildcats by 14.Win.
3 Units.
Wisconsin -9 Badgers head to Lansing to avenge a loss, Sparty could be a little flat here as they just came off an emotional senior sweep of cross state rival Michigan, Russell Wilson will prove the difference and Sparty goes down, Badgers by 10.Loss.
3 Units.
Sweetheart Teaser special:
Oklahoma State +6
Kansas State +1.5
Washington +34
Wisconsin +4.5
Cincinnati +3 USF can't stop the run, Isiah Pead will rack up the mileage, enough to upgrade to 1st class on the flight home. Collaras is mobile and will through all over the non existent defense. The Bulls will struggle to move the ball and will ultimately be embarrassed on Homecoming yet again.Win.
8 Units.
Washington +21 The Huskies are playing well in conference play, they won't pull out the victory here, but they have enough offense to stay within 21. Stanford starts slow and has not been as good as everyone thought this year, tight game going into the half, Stanford pulls away in the 2nd and wins by 17.Loss.
2 Units.
Oklahoma State -7 Another road team here, for some reason the Tigers get alot of credit from Vegas, Oklahoma State just has too many weapons on offense. Cowboys by 10.Win.
3 Units.
Kansas State -11 I have been riding the 'Cats all year, why stop now? Statement game here as the in state rival Jayhawks will be at home, won't matter though. Wildcats by 14.Win.
3 Units.
Wisconsin -9 Badgers head to Lansing to avenge a loss, Sparty could be a little flat here as they just came off an emotional senior sweep of cross state rival Michigan, Russell Wilson will prove the difference and Sparty goes down, Badgers by 10.Loss.
3 Units.
Sweetheart Teaser special:
Oklahoma State +6
Kansas State +1.5
Washington +34
Wisconsin +4.5
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Week 7 NCAA & NFL Week 6 Picks
Undefeated in my NFL picks last week, about time.............not so much with my college action. So here is my money offering this week. Short and sweet.............
LSU -17 Vols are at home but missing 2 of their few offensive pieces. Tigers will be all over them, I don't care how many Vols fans show up.Win.
4 Units.
Kansas State +4 Wrong team favored here. Tech isn't that good. Wildcats getting zero respect. I'll take the money. K State outright. Win.
4 Units.
Ok State -8 Everytime I play Ok State they lay an egg, just a hunch here. Texas got blown out last game against the Sooners, they just don't have the time to recover and plan for Wheeden and Co.Win.
2 Units.
Baylor +9 A&M missing too many players on offense and defense in this contest, especially going against RG3.Loss.
3 Units.
Michigan +2 Wolverines getting disrespected here, I think Northwestern is better than Sparty. Wolverines pull it out.Loss.
2 Units.
BONUS PICK:
Clemson -9 Terrapins are not living up to Edsel's expectations, Tigers keep rolling along. Win.
NFL Picks:
Panthers +4 Falcons just lost their Superbowl against the Pack. Statement game for Cam Newton, Panthers outright.Loss.
5 Units.
Bills +3 Vegas is telling me at +3 the Bills and Giants are even teams.........no. Giants are pure garbage. Bills outright.Push.
3 Units.
Patriots -7 Cowboys lose big, Dallas hates Romo even more, same story different week.Loss.
Enjoy! www.blogtalkradio.com/gametheory check the show out................right now would be a good time.
LSU -17 Vols are at home but missing 2 of their few offensive pieces. Tigers will be all over them, I don't care how many Vols fans show up.Win.
4 Units.
Kansas State +4 Wrong team favored here. Tech isn't that good. Wildcats getting zero respect. I'll take the money. K State outright. Win.
4 Units.
Ok State -8 Everytime I play Ok State they lay an egg, just a hunch here. Texas got blown out last game against the Sooners, they just don't have the time to recover and plan for Wheeden and Co.Win.
2 Units.
Baylor +9 A&M missing too many players on offense and defense in this contest, especially going against RG3.Loss.
3 Units.
Michigan +2 Wolverines getting disrespected here, I think Northwestern is better than Sparty. Wolverines pull it out.Loss.
2 Units.
BONUS PICK:
Clemson -9 Terrapins are not living up to Edsel's expectations, Tigers keep rolling along. Win.
NFL Picks:
Panthers +4 Falcons just lost their Superbowl against the Pack. Statement game for Cam Newton, Panthers outright.Loss.
5 Units.
Bills +3 Vegas is telling me at +3 the Bills and Giants are even teams.........no. Giants are pure garbage. Bills outright.Push.
3 Units.
Patriots -7 Cowboys lose big, Dallas hates Romo even more, same story different week.Loss.
Enjoy! www.blogtalkradio.com/gametheory check the show out................right now would be a good time.
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