Game Theory Radio
Monday, November 9, 2009
Weekend Recap NCAA Week #10 / NFL Week #9
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Free Money Report NFL Picks for Week #9
Chiefs +7 The Jags are awful, they hate using players with hyphens in their names to move the ball and generate points. Not saying the Chiefs will win, but I do not think the Jags are a touchdown better than KC. I feel this is a trap game to get the public to make a play on the Jags, both teams have problems against the run, the Jags can't get any pressure on the QB so Cassell should have a decent day. Jaamal Charles will get the start and should be productive as the Jags rank 24th against the run, the Chiefs are no better at stopping the run, but have made improvements as of late. Jacksonville has alot of trouble when they are favorites of 6.5 points or more. Lets not forget this is a Chiefs team that gave Dallas fits a couple of weeks ago, while that was at Arrowhead the Jags are not the Cowboys. 2 units.Win.
Ravens -3 What a difference having Jared Gaither back has made as the Ravens took apart the Broncos last week. This is a revenge game for a team that holds a grudge. The Bengals are sans Antwan Odom for this contest which will be problematic. If you remember I called the Bengals to cover last time these two played each other. I am going the other way here. The Bengals are good against the run, but Rice has proven to be an excellent player and can bust one at any time. The Ravens secondary is going to be tested here, they will need an excellent pass rush to help them out. The Ravens really gave Orton problems last week, but Palmer can stretch the field much more than Orton. The Ravens looked really well moving the ball with ease on Denvers stout D last week in the 2nd half, which was surprising since the Broncos have been shutting down teams in the 2nd half. Hopefully the Ravens have woke up!! 2 units.Loss.
Texans +10 Huge game for the Texans here. Good to see Kubiak bench fumble machine Slaton. Ryan Moats came in to have a huge day, but Buffalo's run stop unit isn't very good. So he might be challenged against the Colts. Slaton will have to catch alot of balls out of the backfield with Owen Daniels out. Schaub torched the Bills excellent pass D last week, using Johnson and Walter is a must for this game. I still have my doubts about the Colts pass D, we shall see what happens. Hopefully Chris Brown doesn't make an appearance in this game, I don't want to see him at all since he pants shit on that 1st and goal against the Cards a couple of weeks back. Manning did not look good last week against a team whose best corner, Nate Clements, was out. The Texans have all of a sudden figured out how to stop the run so Addai might not have a big day. This will leave it all up to Manning. The Colts have New England and Baltimore coming up, so they might not be taking the Texans seriously, but we take money seriously. This is the Texans biggest game of the year as far as they are concerned, I expect them to perform. 3 units.Win.
Packers -10 The Packers do well against bad teams, and the Bucs are a dumpster fire. I expect Rodgers to have a huge game here, they need a bounce back game after the loss the Brett and the Vikings. A trip to Tampa will cure that. Ready for that juicy tidbit I talked about last night? Well here it is, as per the Pewter Report, the Bucs and head coach Raheem Morris felt it would be appropriate to only practice for 2.5 hours since their loss across the pond!!!! My co-ed softball team practices more than that! The Bucs are in complete disarray as head coach and law breaking CB Aqib Talib have been fighting since Talib broke curfew in London. Also, the Bucs are starting Josh Freeman, who is garbage. Josh Freeman was so worried about making his debut that he flew home for the bye week to visit family. Nice!! I'm pretty sure he didn't face any 3-4 defenses at K State. Freeman will be throwing to sub-par WR's who happen to be covered by Al Harris and Charles Woodson, good luck with that. This is my November Pick of the Month. 10 units. Loss.
Cardinals +3 Billy Vegas won't like this pick, but time for some fact facing. The Bears offensive line really struggled against the Browns. Shaun Rodgers was in the backfield on every play, as a result Cutler was hurried in alot of his throws. The Bears offense was inept against the Browns who had their defense on the field the whole time because Derek Anderson sucks at life. The Cardinals will be looking to bounce back as Warner did his best to impersonate Delhomme last week. The Bears also struggle against the run, but the Cards are not very proficient at running the ball anyway. Ron Turner is awful and should feel guilty for stealing money from the Bears, his play calling will continue to be the downfall of the Bears in this contest. The Bears are good against the pass, but I feel the D-line won't be able to get to Warner and he has alot of weapons at his disposal, tight game, but I like the points here. 2 units.Win.
Seahawks -9 The Seahawks are still in the hunt for the NFC West oddly enough. Detroit is horrible, with Smith and Johnson out they will continue that trend. The Lions dropped 10 balls last week versus the Rams. The Seahawks will look to rebound at home, where they are usually pretty tough; after the blowout at Dallas they need to make a statement. Hasselbeck is due for a big game, he should be able to torch the Lions punchless secondary. The Lions rank last against the run, so even Julius Jones should have a decent day against them. Hopefully the crowd at Qwest field can induce some false starts out of the Lions and induce some money into my pockets. This game has blowout stamped all over it. 2 units.Win.
Titans +4 Shady line here, I really liked this game at first, but checking the trends Jeff Fisher really struggles on the West Coast. Despite my jokes about VY, the guy wins games, much like Kyle Orton. The 49ers played the Colts tough and put alot of effort into that came so there could be some hangover here. The Titans are re energized after they destroyed Jax last week, this team looks like they believe in themselves again. One thing that pushed me to make a play on the Titans is the fact that both starting tackles are out for the 49ers, might not sound like a big deal but I am big on offensive lines, they are cash cows. So that being said the Titans should have success pressuring Smith. Gore should have a decent game, but the Titans have a pretty solid run defense. Another thing I really like about this game is did you notice that Chris Johnson ran wild against the Jags? I know Jax run stop unit isn't good, but VY's ability to scramble will spread out the defense opening up wider running lanes for Johnson to run through. 4 units. Win.
Chargers +5 Poor Giants, I faded them last week, the public has yet to follow suit, silly public, they hate money possession. The Giants weakness is the deep ball, the Chargers strength? The deep ball. Chris Chambers was cut and replaced with a Vincent Jackson clone in Malcom Floyd who is also 6'5". Eli is hurt, that heel is really bothering him and it shows, he has been inaccurate against good teams with his passes. The Giants running attack has been less than Giant as of late. The Chargers also have not had much success in the running department either. Rivers should have a huge game here as the Giants pass rush has been less than stellar as of late. I might make a small play on the Chargers as a live dog on the ML here as well. 5 units.Win.
Season Record 44-16-1
That's what I have so far, I am still kicking around three games and will probably post them later. I like the Pats -11, Panthers +13, and Steelers -3 as well but I need to do a little more digging before I commit.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
College Football Week #10 Pick 'em Challenge
Wisconsin -10 Indiana had an epic pants shitting last week, in what was their Superbowl and they blew their load ( and my cover, had them +18, thanks for the Push Vegas ) against the Hawkeyes. The Badgers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 when playing Indiana on the road. John Clay puts the Hoosiers in a bad spot, they will have to load up in the box to stop Clay, but then again Indiana is horrible versus the pass. As you probably witnessed when Stanzi threw lame passes to wide open receivers in the 4th quarter last week. Indiana hates playing football for more than 3 quarters. The Badgers coming off a beatdown of Purdon't will be hungry for more. Wiscy has beaten Indy by more than 10 points every year since 2005, lets roll with that trend.Loss.
SMU -17 Last week I did not have my reverse money train Rice available due to a bye week. I love betting against Rice, they could play me by myself and I would cover. Bo Levi Mitchell and June Jones should have a field day at home. Rice hates scoring points and playing defense, I think its safe to say they will continue that tradition.Loss.
Oklahoma State -7 We are getting good value on the Pokes here, after they got destroyed by an overrated Texas team on Saturday night. The Pokes embarrassed me, I knew once I placed the bet it was bye bye money. That's what happens when I 2nd guess myself. Not having Bryant and Hunter forced Zach Robinson to do everything himself, he wound throwing 4 picks en route to a blowout. The Pokes destroyed the Cyclones last year, beating them by 42 in Stillwater. The Cyclones were covering for me early in the season but I faded them last week, just in time as they got smashed by Texas A&M. I was lucky to escape the Nebraska game with my money intact as the Cornhuskers were allergic to the football and kept dropping it. Lucky for them Iowa State is anemic on offense, too bad my bank account won't be after this game.Win.
Oregon -7 The Ducks are blowing everyone out, to include USC. To some this might be a breather alert, to me its a cover and profit. The Ducks are 6-1 ATS when playing Stanford. I don't think very highly of the Cardinal, they were unimpressive against Oregon State and incapable of playing from behind and they lost to Wake Forest. Oregon is playing with fire right now and are in the drivers seat in the Pac-10 for a Rosebowl berth against Iowa. I don't see the Ducks falling asleep behind the wheel here. Massoli has been great and should receive some Heisman consideration, the Ducks also found a great RB to replace Blount. Stanford's offense is sluggish and will not be able to keep up with Oregon firepower.Loss.
Oklahoma -6 Wow Vegas hates money. Why does Nebraska get so much credit, they haven't done shit. The Sooners defense will crush them, if they struggled against Iowa State how will they score points here. Small Game Bob Stoops should be up for this game against a Big 12 North opponent as the Sooners can ill afford to drop another game. Donkey Kong Suh is fresh off a brush with the law, so who knows if he will be playing or not. Oh, and by the way the Sooners are 7-1-1 in their last 9 road tilts, I think the K-State game got us some value here.Loss.
******EXTRA PICKS******** (for those of you who can't get enough free money!)
Texas A&M -3 The Aggies seem to have found their stride after getting embarrassed by K State. The Buffalo's are a toenail clipping fire. They are in total disarray, they have major QB problems and their starting running back quit the team this week. A&M has been one of the few teams in the Big 12 with consistent QB play, Jarrod Johnson has been putting up solid numbers this season, and I think Colorado has given up on the season with all of the problems.Loss.
UTEP -7 The Miners knocked off Houston earlier this year, so we know they can put up some points, they also knocked off Tulsa. Lets hope they don't sleep walk through their game with Tulane, as Tulane is awful and has been blown out by every opponent except for Army (who they beat by 1 point). Lets hope they lose by 20 again here.Loss.
Duke +10 UNC has a good defense but has alot of trouble moving the ball and they are very inconsistent. Meanwhile Duke has been quietly covering away and they played VT very tough and they also beat another defensive team in Virginia. Lets hope Lewis can score some points and the defense keeps the game within a touchdown reach.Loss.
GT -14 The Jackets have been scoring a ton of points, they have been giving some up as well though. Two of Wake's best players in QB Skinner and WR Williams are both out for this contest. So I am not to sure how they will be able to keep up with the Tech offense. Also this is an ACC game so I expect Tech to take Wake for real instead of playing sloppy like they did at Vandy last week.Loss.
Season Record 31-31-2Pick 'em Chalenge 2-7-1
Well that is that and this is it. I'm out. I am gassed from two mid-terms this week. About time for me to think about fading grad school! I'll be back later with some more college action and a full slate of NFL action, from the looks of it Thanksgiving is this Sunday!! Thanks Vegas!!!
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Weekend Recap (Week 9 NCAA, Week 8 NFL)
Wednesday, October 28, 2009
NFL Week #8 Free Money Report
Ravens -3 Jared Gaither will be back in the line up for this game allowing Micheal Oher to switch back to his natural side. This will give Flacco time to throw which he has not had in two games. I just cannot see the Ravens losing a 4th game in a row, especially at home. The Broncos are a solid team and have made me alot of money this year, Orton has been outstanding, but the Broncos have basically run away with the AFC West and have the Steelers next week. The Ravens are playing for pride and need this game to stay in the division hunt. I see this to be a low scoring game, but the Ravens should pull it out at home. Both QB's have outstanding protecting, both teams can stop the run, but the Ravens have been struggling against the pass, however, I think having Gaither back in the line up really helps Flacco. 2 units.Win.
Texans -3 Wow, the Texans have won two games in a row, could they be turning the corner? Johnson is banged up and is questionable for this game with a lung contusion. Schaub has alot of other weapons though, such as Daniels and Slaton. Buffalo has an outstanding defense, Fitzpatrick is actually an improvement over Edwards. However, there is a disturbing trend the Bills have and that is they hate covering on the road. The Bills are just 1-7 in their last 8 ATS at Ralph Wilson Stadium. The Texans sketchy defense was pitching a shut out until Alex Smith came into the game and brought the 49ers within 3. I am fading that because obviously the Texans had not planned for Smith to enter the game. The Texans beat the Bengals soundly who just like the Bills have a sound defense, but the Bills offense is nowhere near the Bengals. This is a good spot for the Texans as they could be in a wildcard position if they keep playing well. 4 units. Win.
Colts -13 Not even The Blanket is brave enough to bet against Peyton Manning. He is far and away at the top of his game this year. The 49ers are still in transition and have been struggling to run the ball as of late. Smith is getting the start and has to face Freeney and Mathis, have fun Alex. The Colts defense has vastly improved so I think San Fran will struggle to move the ball both on the ground and in the air. The 49ers might be able to shut down Addai, but Manning has too many weapons in Wayne, Clark, Garcon, Collie and Brown for the 49ers to account for. Will the Colts ever lose? 2 units. Loss.
Dolphins +4 Kris Jenkins is out for this game, the Jets premiere run stopper and here come the run happy Dolphins. These teams hate each other, while most teams would fold up shop with a 2-4 record I don't see a Sparano/ Parcells team doing that. Henne won't be phased by the hostile crowd, this guy was the QB at Michigan and had to play in the Horseshoe and at Sparty as well as Happy Valley, none of these places are welcoming to the Wolverines. Maybe Sparano will bench hands of stone Ted Ginn for this contest as he has proved several times he cannot handle the power behind a pass coming from a Wolverine. This game will be tight and the Jets are without Washington as well and their WR's are nothing to write home about. Will Allen Miami's best CB is done for the season too. I see the crowd turning against Sanchez quick if he throws a pick against the Dolphins opportunistic defense that picked Brees 3 times last week. Miami covers a squeaker. 2 units. Win.
Cowboys -10 Wow, I am taking the Cowboys and the Gators in the same weekend? Definitely a first for me. The Cowboys torched the Falcons, the Falcons were embarrassed and should enter the witness protection program. Romo had time to throw and delivered an excellent performance. Miles Austin will command safety help all game long against the Seahawks abysmal secondary, forcing Williams to step up and make plays. The Cowboys secondary played with heart against Atlanta lets hope they continue this week. The Cowboys will be able to run the ball with any of their three backs, Lofa Tatupa is out for the year and his absence will show. Jones and Locklear so Hasselbeck will be a sitting duck as I expect the Cowboys pass rush will be unrelenting, I doubt Morris will have any success against his former team as the Seahawks O-line hates to run block and pass protect. The Cowboys will not take this game lightly as they are poised to make a play for taking the lead in the NFC East. 3 units.Win.
Jaguars +3 David Garrard is playing well and I am definitely not laying points with the Titans. Especially with the Fisher / Manning jersey fallout, this team is in disarray. Collins is gassed and I expect to see VY at some point in this game. I also think MJD will have a big game and which one of the Titans beat up secondary is going to attempt to cover Mike Sims-Walker? The Jags are a better team then the Titans and I am getting points? I like it! 2 units.Loss.
Vikings +3 I guess I did not learn my lesson last week. Favre tossed a pick at a horrible time and blew a cover for me. Let's hope he doesn't have to play from behind in this game. The Packers got their 4 wins against garbage teams ( Lions, Browns, Rams and Bears) They have yet to beat a decent team. The Vikings have had a much tougher schedule. Rodgers has been sacked alot this year, look for that to continue here. Tauscher and Clifton should be back for this game, but who knows if they will be ready to handle the Vikings D-line and mad man Jared Allen, the Vikings secondary is beat up but I don't envision Rodgers having much time to throw. Vikings pull out a close game, I like the points here. 2 units.Win.
Cardinals -10 I'm not too high on this game, matter of fact there is no NFL game this weekend that makes me want to lay big units on. The Cardinals hate covering double digit spreads at home. Then again they are playing the Panthers, who scored 2 points against the Bills (minus a TD in garbage time) Delhomme will struggle against the Cards secondary. Arizona looks to have figured it out as Warner went deep twice against the Giants. The Cardinals defense has been looking great the last couple of games as they blew out the Seahawks at Qwest field and really frustrated Eli last week. I think the Cards will put Delhomme on suicide watch after this game. Cards big. 2 units. Loss.
Season Record 38-14-1
Eight games so far, if I have a good Saturday with my college action I might add two games, those being the Raiders +17 and the Giants Pk. I am thinking bettors will start pounding the Eagles making the Giants a dog. The Chargers can't run the ball and the Raiders will shut down the passing game, just ask the Eagles. Lets hope I can get back on track this weekend, I need it.
Monday, October 26, 2009
NCAA Week #9 Pick 'em
East Carolina -4 ECU is a decent team that can score some points, they have had some nice C-USA wins this season to include Marshall, they also beat UCF, a team with a solid defense. Memphis does not have a solid defense, nor are they a good offense. I think the Pirates cover the 4 on the road.Win.
West Virginia -3 USF has no heart and likes to get blown out at home, look for this trend to continue here on a national stage. You can't teach pride or heart and USF has none of either. This game will be like taking free money from Vegas. USF couldn't catch Zach Collaros so how are they going to catch Noel Divine out of the backfield, he will have a huge day and the Mountaineers will move the ball with ease. USF can't stand stopping the run or defending the pass and they really hate winning conference games. WV big. Loss.
****Ole Miss -3 Looks like the Rebels have found their grove, beating a solid Razorbacks team with ease on Saturday. Auburn has been beat real badly their last couple of games and I see that trend continuing here. I think we are getting good value here with the Rebels, lets take advantage of that here. Auburn looks prepped to continue their downward spiral. Loss.
****South Carolina +6 I have stated before, you will never see me take the Gamecocks when they are favored. As dogs they always seem to show up. SC has a solid defense and will be able to pressure Crompton and put the clamps on the Vols running game. The Vols are getting alot of hype coming off a close loss to Alabama, I don't buy it. I see this as a very low scoring game and a battle of field goals, in that situation I love taking points and I think getting 6 points here is a nice play. Loss.
Oregon +4 Oregon loves to cover and they have the best uniforms in college football. USC is over-hyped and an ESPN love child. The Ducks offense has really been clicking since they laid an egg against Boise St., which was a total fluke. USC is nothing special and they do not cover. Barkley is a solid QB but I think he will have a rough time in Autzen Stadium this time around. The Ducks play as of late is a testament to their coach, I don't see the Ducks slowing sown at home. I think the Ducks win this game outright and as always I will take the points as well as the money. Win.
Arkansas -38 Huge number here I know, but this is a non conference game and Mallet's passer rating is through the roof against non-conference opponents. Eastern Michigan hates covering and winning, they will be out matched in every aspect of this game. Having problems justifying the 38? Think about what the Razorbacks did to Texas A&M. I just don't see how the Eagles will be able to score here. Central Michigan beat them by 47 as well and that was an in state rival, Razorbacks might cover after the 1st quarter and they need this game as the Razorbacks have had a very difficult schedule.Loss.
****GT -12 Vandy is getting alot of credit here for being in the SEC, that probably lowered the spread 2-3 points here. GT is in the drivers seat for the ACC crown and I don't see the Yellowjackets taking any opponent lightly. Vandy lost to Army, that's bad. The triple option is very hard to stop and should pile up yardage in this contest as it is very hard to prep for this type of offense.Win.
Houston -6 The line has dropped 1 point in my favor here. I like laying 6 MUCH better than 7 for obvious reasons. Southern Miss has been a huge disappointment, they had a national TV audience that witnessed the Eagles shit their pants a couple of weeks ago, but then again so did the Cougars. Houston is tough at home and their potent offense is very capable of putting up points in a hurry. Southern Miss has a backup at QB which makes me even more comfortable laying the points.Win.
****Pokes +9 The Longhorns are primed for a loss and Stillwater is the perfect place for theri cherry to get popped. Another loss by Oklahoma St and the Pokes are done and out of a Big 12 title shot. Dez Bryant might be in the lineup as well. Texas is a slow starting team, they might want to be careful with that, because Zach Robinson is a solid QB and a fierce competitor and is a better QB then Colt "I don't want to start playing till the 2nd half" Mccoy. If the Pokes double up Jordan "Mr. Ed" Shipley Texas will struggle to move the ball. Hopefully Dez and Kendall are both back for this contest. The Longhorns have no identity right now and look a bit sloppy, upset alert on the road for the Longhorns.Loss.
Air Force -4 I love this game!!!!! I have bet against Air Force 1 time this year and that was when they played covering machine Wyoming (go away Mel Kiper Jr. you ruined Idaho for me and if I see/ hear you talking about the rest of my covering machines and my one reverse covering machine we are going to have a fireside chat and you will not enjoy it). CSU was a jr. covering machine in the beginning of the year as I called the outright when against their in state rival. However, since then the pants shitting has commenced. TCU beat them by 600 and embarrassed me on my pick 'em forum. Air Force plays every one tough for example TCU 3 point loss, Navy 3 point loss, Utah (in Utah) 7 point loss. So I think they cover the 4 easy, this will be a 10 unit play for me. Win.
Gators -15 wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! Go Gators!!!!!!! I love Tim Tebow, just kidding I can't stand him. However, Georgia is terrible and Urban Meyer holds a grudge like an elephant, he will never forget the touchdown celebration that the Bulldogs felt prudent to do. The Gators need a big win, its time to put up or shut up for Tebow. I figure the Gators will get a free touchdown here for the 3rd week in a row so technically the spread for this game is -8 and I think the Gators can get that against a pathetic Bulldogs squad. I can't believe I just wrote about the Gators on my blog, their goes my journalistic integrity, I am going to put a bible verse on my eye black for my next co-ed softball game to make amends!Win.
****Indiana +18 The Hoosiers can score some points, Iowa hates scoring points until there is 2 seconds left on the clock and The Blanket is clinging to life. No doubt the Hawkeyes win this game but, I can't see them winning by more than 14. Iowa is another South Carolina. In case you are a new reader I have my South Carolina rule and that rule is as follows quoted from the Bible it states as follows: "The Gamecocks are not in play in any game in which they are favored, they are in play if they are dogs of any amount because they play to the level of their opponents" Apply this to the Hawkeyes in this situation. I have alot of respect for Ferentz and Stanzi as well as the team but 18 is alot of wood here.Push.
Season Record 30-23-2
Pick 'em Challenge 1-3-1
That is what I have money lovers. Lets have a Saturday of unit collecting I need it as I have been breaking even the last 2 weeks. If you have noticed I jumped off the Idaho bandwagon this week as well as my Iowa State bandwagon. Mel Kiper is to blame for Idaho and I have been riding Iowa State for too long. I mentioned earlier about my covering machines. I will list them here because I care about my readers and want them to profit. I'm not one of those handicappers that tries to sway action, I simply don't have the readership for that. My covering machines are Air Force, Navy, Wyoming, South Carolina, my reverse covering machine is Rice, but they are on a bye this week so we will bet against them next week. I started off well this week with an ECU cover, lets keep it going as I look to redeem myself on my NFL action as I have been have un-Blanket-like performances the last two weeks, it ends today.
Weekend Recap...............
1.) Florida
2.) Nevada
3.) Boise St.
4.) Notre Dame
5.) USC
6.) Ohio St.
7.) Texas
There we have it. I will be posting some of my college games shortly.