Hello money fans, we are venturing into dangerous waters this weekend. Vegas took it up the rear for a second week. The public hit the number on the Ravens, Saints, Raiders, Colts to name a few. Vegas managed only a Bears and Jets cover to re-coup some cash. So we are gonna be careful this weekend. As my readers know I take each loss ATS personally, I don't like losing one game and I pick my games accordingly. This week I have another full slate of action as I look to siphon off some more Vegas cash!! With that said here are my picks for week #3.
49ers +7 I know, I know "but the Vikings are the best team ever" maybe they are, but they have faced two less than stellar defenses in the Browns and the Lions. Here come the 49ers. I feel getting 7 points here is a great value. Favre has been getting carried by AP so far. Against the 49ers 7th ranked rush defense he will be forced to throw, has anyone seen Favre throw a deep ball this year? Me either. I am a believer in the 49ers now and they are still undervalued. Action on this game is equal going 50/50 on the ESPN darling that is the Vikings. I like the 49ers in this spot. Win.
Giants -7 I was telling Billy Vegas over at Banter Theory this spread makes me nervous because the Bucs are in bad shape defensively. Jermaine Phillips is out for a while as well and the Bucs are near the bottom in every defensive category and are currently signing members of the Bengals practice squad to add to their secondary. The Giants on the other hand are road warriors and Jacobs and Bradshaw will have no problems running the ball. Eli should have a big day being that the Bucs are thin on CB's and safeties. Leftwich will have to rely on his running game to move the sticks. The Giants gave up some good yardage to Jones and Barber on Sunday night, but at some point Leftwich will have to throw to his "WR's" we'll see how that works out for him. Win.
Saints -6 I will continue to ride the Saints until proven otherwise. I don't know if Trent Edwards and the Bills can match the Saints powerful offense. I don't see the Bills doing much on the ground in this game as the Saints are only allowing 2.9 YPC, this will force Edwards into throwing situations against the Saints improved secondary. Drew Brees has a TON of weapons to throw to, even though New Orleans RB's are dinged up I don't see scoring to be a problem for the Saints. Both teams will be up for this game, no let downs here. Saints are looking to stay atop the NFC South while the Bills are trying to make up ground on the Jets.Win.
Bears -2 Big game for the Bears here. They cannot go into Qwest field flat because the Seahawks won't have Hasselback. Wallace can move the chains with short passes, but he will need to rely on Julius Jones to do so. Sorry I don't see Jones running on the Bears. The Seahawks are ranked 3rd versus the pass, but they have yet to face a Jay Cutler caliber QB. Cutler will slice and dice the Seahawks secondary. Hopefully Forte gets going and the Bears use him to set up play action and screen passes. I like Chicago here in a close game, but I think Cutler is worth the -2.Win.
Chargers -6 Big game here for the Bolts. Phillip Rios has been on fire so far this year. Miami has to come all the way to the west coast after they put everything they had into the Monday night game only to lose in the last two minutes. Not to mention the Chargers will be looking for some revenge after the Dolphins beat them last year. Miami has a tough schedule and it doesn't get any easier. The Colts suck against the run so I don't think the Wildcat will have the same success against San Diego. I like the Bolts with a nice cover here.Win.
Ravens -13.5 The Ravens are this years version of last years Titans (covering wise). Baltimore won a tough road game against a quality opponent last week. Now they come home to face the lowly Browns who hate scoring touchdowns. As long as the Browns keep starting Brady " I can't throw the ball further than 10 yards" Quinn they will continue to get milk cartoned week in and week out. This spread (13.5) makes the average gambler want to take the points, but lets face facts, the Browns couldn't score a TD against the Broncos and somehow I am supposed to believe they will score on against the Ravens? Not so fast my friends. Flacco, much like Ryan is showing no signs of the sophomore slump, his deep balls are thrown accurately with little effort. Ray Rice is running the ball like he is still torching my USF Bulls defense every week. Ravens get it done here. Win.
There we have it people, 6 games for your gambling pleasure. I may add the Eagles game depending on the spread which I am projecting at -11, but we will see. I haven't quite figured out this paradox of why Vegas has been getting used and abused so far this season, but the public is backing the Ravens 88%, the Bears 97%, Saints 98%, and the Giants 98%. Lets hope the public is more informed because they have been reading my blog, or better yet maybe Vegas just hates money and wants to give it away!
Season Record 15-1
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