NFL kicked off last night with the Saints squeaking a win out at home. They earned me a little cash as I tend to be cautious the first week with my plays. I took the Saints ML -250 and I made a little spending money on their 5 point win. I hope for your bank accounts sake you are now following our new radio show at www.blogtalkradio.com/gametheory if not why do you hate money so much?? Lets get to the picks.
49ers -3 This will be my first big play of the season, I know, I know, I am contradicting myself from what I stated above. That being said this will be a 5 unit play for me. The 49ers kept most of their offensive weapons on the shelf for the preseason, Alex Smith has improved. Normally going to play the Seahawks at home is not a fun task but, who exactly is going to block for the aging Matt Hasselbeck? Both Willis and Okung are out and Seattle's O-line is a dumpster fire. San Fran will have no problem stopping the Seahawks run game and Hassellbeck will have no time to throw. I don't even know if the Seahawks will find the endzone.
5 Units. Loss.
Packers -3 On the road in Philly for their season opener, Philly is a decent squad, but I do see some holes in the O-line and secondary. Kolb is facing a daunting task in his season debut. The Packers if you have been listening to the show are my favorites to win the Superbowl I have them beating the Ravens. Rodgers was untouchable in the preseason. The Packers are finally able to offer him some pass protection. Rodgers also has a ton of weapons at his disposal Jennings, Driver and Finely are all excellent options, I look for the Pack to leave Philly with a win. Packers win this game by 6.
1 Unit. Win.
Ravens +3 My Superbowl pick to play the Packers this year. I'm not buying the Jets this season. I don't even see them winning the conference as I think the Patriots will be a sleeper this season. Joe Flacco in my opinion will have a great year with his two new toys he gets to play with plus the Ravens do posses a top 5 back and a great offensive line. The defense is a year older but they are always a stalwart. Sanchez was unimpressive in the preseason and I don't see him doing much against the Ravens D. I'll take the points and the money. The Ravens won't be bothered by the Jets home opener in their new stadium on Monday night.
1 Unit. Win.
Texans +3 I think this is the year the Texans finally get over the hump with the Colts. The public and their hard earned money is flying the Colts way, to the tune of over 90%. I'm going against the grain here and I like getting three at home. The Texans are 8-1 ATS as dogs at home since 2006, another disturbing trend is the Superbowl Hangover Theory in which Superbowl losers are 3-13 ATS in their first game since the big one. I think the Colts secondary and their running game is suspect. They also have some holes on their O-line lets hope Schaub and company can keep this one close.
1 Unit. Win.
Lions +7 I believe the last time I took the Lions they burned me, if I remember correctly they went up 17 points and I was already getting them at +8 so I already started spending that money in my mind, that game was 2 years ago against the Bucs. Different times now for the Lions as they are actually projected to win a few games this year.The Lions are a publicly backed dog to the tune of 64%, the public is actually putting their hard earned money on the Lions? wow. The Bears were undefeated in losing this preseason and there is the old saying the preseason doesn't count but, it does matter. The Lions are full of young stars like Stafford, Johnson and Best. It seems Cutler is worried about beating his interception total for last year because all preseason long he was holding onto the ball like it owed him money. I am concerned about the pass protection for Cutler in this contest. Let's see we have a Mike Martz offense and a Lions D-line featuring Suh and Vanden Bosch, Cutler might get sacked between 6-10 times this game. Even though the Bears D-line has improved with the addition of Peppers he does have a knack for loafing and he already signed his big contract so we will see what production he puts up. Lions take this game by 4 and we cover comfortably, sorry battle!
3 Units. Win.
There you go, 5 games to help cover your mortgage refi in this wonderful economy, take some of the money I win you this weekend and by the wife, girlfriend or mistress a nice new dress or some new shoes! Also I will be posting other picks sans write up because I go over each game on our radio show and you know that because you are listening!
Rest of my picks:
Raiders +7 (1 Unit) Loss
Patriots -4 (1 Unit) Win
Browns +3 (1 Unit) Push
Broncos +3 (1 Unit) Loss.
Chargers -5 (1 Unit)
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