Game Theory Radio

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

NCAA Week 6 Pick 'em

Had a good weekend in Vegas where I did some damage to the Vegas coffers, Tropicana, Laggasse's, Caesar's Palace and Planet Hollywood sports books were all left licking their wounds. To top it off my biggest play of the weekend was the Giants +2.5. I covered it by a half point and collected a healthy cash windfall. Followed it up by crushing some prop bets on Monday nights game as well as hitting the over on the Bears- Cowboys game. My biggest play was Jay Cutler with less than 19.5 completions, covered it with 1.5 completions to spare! Still not where I need to be in the Pick 'em contest, however at least I'm not the guy that lost $24,000 on the Eagles at the Tropicana sportsbook on Sunday night! Lets see what we have for this week:




Florida +3    Tough play here, this is the way I see it. Gators are coming off a bye, they are at home, the Florida defense has been nasty all season long and Driskell has been coming along. I have watched LSU a couple of times this year and their quarterback really struggles on the road, the pressure that Auburn brought really bothered him. While I do not put too much stock into the performance against Towson last week because I know the Tigers were looking ahead to Florida I feel that the Gators are in the right spot here.


2 Units.





Northern Illinois -3    This spread is dead on both teams are equal, I think the Huskies have a little bit more on defense which should slow Testicle Tech down as the Cardinals can score some points as well as give them up. NIU is 13-1 straight up in their last 14 games, so I feel they can pull this conference game off by more than 3.




2 Units.





Washington +24     The Ducks have yet to play a true road game this season, now they head back to Autzen for a game against the Huskies. The public loves to bet on the Ducks because they rack up points, that being said they routinely have deal with laying big numbers. Washington could be flat after taking out Stanford  last week, I would take the let down alert into consideration if the Huskies weren't playing the #2 team in the nation. Sarkasian will have his team prepped for the Ducks. Oregon will win, but 24 points is just too much for this spot.



2 Units.







Louisiana Tech -24   I hate laying this many points but the Bulldogs have been good to me all year. They are playing at home for only the 2nd time all year. No doubt the home crowd will be chomping at the bit for their 4-0 team to take down the sacrificial lamb in the form of UNLV. La Tech has taken down a Big 10 team and an ACC team in consecutive weeks so they will be ready to put a show on at home. La Tech showed last week that they can come from behind as they were down most of the game to Virginia but managed to pull it out on the road.




2 Units.






Louisiana Monroe  -3     Middle Tennessee is a decent team, and coming off a huge win against Georgia Tech this will be a let down alert game for them. The Warhawks on the other hand despite their 2-2 record have been playing solid ball. They lost to Baylor at home and Auburn needed a FG to put ULM away and the Warhawks dusted off the Razorbacks in their first of three tough games. The battle tested ULM team will not be concerned with this road game, I like them in this spot.




3 Units.




There we have it, I noticed that I posted 6 games last week and did not even realize it as I was posting from my hotel room on my iphone, went 3-3 in posted picks, .500 will not get it down, that being said I am trending in the right direction after my 4-1 week one start. Need a 5-0 performance this week for sure!


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