Have you ever had deja....deja.....deja....deja....deja vu? I almost did last Saturday going 4-0 with my first four picks then dropping the Washington @ Oregon game. I was less than pleased as I thought I had that game pegged, but as I say all the time even though I am a skilled handicapper I cannot handicap for turnovers, which is what ultimately did the Huskies in. 4-1 still not bad but I can do better. On a side note, I love how these "pay for pick handicappers" email you with their free pick that is never correct but are always 100-1 ATS +400 units and their units are $1000, grow up and piss off. That being said lets get to my action for Saturday:
Oregon State +6 Not quite sure what gives with this spread, the Beavers continue to get no respect despite being ranked, yes they are on the road at BYU, for some reason Vegas loves the Cougars, well I love money and like the Beavers to win this low scoring affair out right. The Beavers have beaten better squads on the road this season then BYU and I also feel that this is the only team that will be able to take down the Ducks in the Civil War. Maybe we are getting some value because Oregon State only won by 13 at Washington State. Hard to over look the fact that the Bears are 17-6-1 in their last 24 road tilts though.
3 Units.
West Virginia -4 When I first looked at this spread I thought I was walking into a trap. However, I think Vegas is giving the Red Raider defense some props because they are near the top in total defense in the nation, too bad they haven't played anyone but the Sooners and how did that work out for Tech? I think the Mountaineers offense is a touch more potent then Oklahoma's. Geno Smith will continue to do work in this game. The Red Raiders just will not be able to keep pace with WVU on the scoreboard.
4 Units.
Utah State +4 Much like Oregon State the Aggies get are getting no respect from Vegas either. Utah State is 5-0-1 in their last 6 ATS. The Aggies have a very tough defense and on the offensive side they can move the ball. San Jose is no slouch either but they have been scored on in bunches this season a couple of times. should be a good game but I think we are on the right side taking the points.
3 Units.
Florida -9 The Gators have been snow balling this season, you can see improvements on both sides of the ball with each passing week. The defense has been stellar while Driskell and Gillislee are rounding into form. Vandy has been a disappointment and I think they will struggle mightily to move the ball exposing the defense too many times and letting the Gators control the time of possession. Although Vandy is at home I just do not see them scoring more than 10 points in this game and I am comfortable that the Gators can put up at least 21.
3 Units.
South Carolina +3 I struggled with my 5th pick looking at Middle Tennessee State and La Tech, but I feel that the Gamecocks are the better team here. A couple things give me pause, a night game in Death Valley and a desperate LSU team with their season on the line. However, Shaw and Lattimore looked great against UGA last week as they owned the Bulldogs wire to wire last week. The defenses will cancel each other out, but USC's offense trumps LSU's by a long shot.
2 Units.
There you have it money lovers, lets hope to match or improve upon last weeks results!
2 comments:
Oregon State is the underdog because their QB is out and their starter is making his first start on the road
Vaz also takes the same amount of snaps every practice as Mannion, they had a close race for the starting job so there wont be a drop off in QB play still doesn't mean BYU should be favored by more than 3 fella.
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