Game Theory Radio

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

Week 9 NFL Picks

Im back people, I went 9-5 on college football and 9-3 on the NFL, I have been up and down on the NFL so far this season, very unBlanket like. That being said I have been spying on Vegas and they have been eating at 5 star restaurants since the NFL season has started. Vegas went 7-1 this weekend due to the Ravens cover (their one loss). Vegas has been killing the casual gambler. As stated by my battle Billy Vegas over at Banter Theory we bet ALL the games we put up. Well enough shop talk lets get to the money part, here are my picks:


Jets +5.5 @ Buffalo: I don't think the Bills are quite yet ready to lay 5.5 points. It will mostly be on Trent Edwards because The Jets are ranked 2nd versus the rush. Both teams will be up for this game, since a share of the division lead is on the line. Favre is going to have to move the chains himself as well, since Buffalo will shut down the Jets running game. Buffalo's secondary is banged up. Buffalo should win but I am nervous about the 5.5 points and they have not been particularly consistent at Ralp Wilson. Go light here 1 unit. Win. Hello money, Bills are a tad overvalued.


Jags -7.5 @ Cincy: The Jags have made Vegas ALOT of money as they are overvalued this season, the Jags haven't one by 7 all season. I have bet against the Jags 3 times this year (vs Buffalo, Denver and Cleveland) and won each time. This week I am buying them. Cincy is a "dumpster fire" to quote my battle. Fitzpatrick is terrible, he cant throw the ball over 10 yards, the offensive line in garbage as well. The Jags are desperate and need to save their season. They cover this game. Hello money!! 2 units. Loss. Bye Bye money. Jags are a prom night dumpster baby, no excuse to lose at cincy.


Lions +13.5 @ Bears: On paper one would like to push all in on Chicago, no so fast my friends!! 0 and 7 teams are 14-6 ATS since 2000. If the Lions put up 14, that means the Bears have to put up 29, 30 points to cover. This is a divisonal game, these teams know each other well. My only problem with this spread is the Bears do not have an explosive offense, I know that Orlovsky is hot garbage and Calvin Johnson will have Bear DB's on him like a cheap suit. 1 Unit Win. Hello money. Bears won a squeaker, 13.5 was a big number for them.


Ravens +1.5 @ Browns: Derek "Jekyl and Hyde" Anderson will resurface this sunday. The Browns beat the Jags last week, but the Jags D is not, the Ravens have burned me twice this year, (thanks Chris Mccalister for getting milk cartoned against the Colts) that being said he is back from injury, the Ravens D is stout, Stallworth is out, the Browns only deep threat and Bralen Edwards hates catching leather balls thrown at him. Flacco has been playing alot better since his early season JT O'shitifumbledagain imatation, look for Mcgahee to have a nice day as well. 1 Unit Win. Hello money, Browns were up for awhile but the Ravens hung around. Browns have a tough schedule.


Bucs -9@ Chiefs: Time to go to the textbook, page 62, in Chapter 3 "I like money" the trend says always take a favorite of 6.5 or more going into a bye week. The trend is also 30-5 ATS since 2002. Me Likey! That being said Tyler Thigpen was the greatest QB of all time last week! After that performanceI penciled in the Chiefs to play Central Mich in the Motor City Bowl, I see at least 3 turnovers from the Chiefs, Thigpen will have a tough time with Kiffen multiple look blitz packages. The Bucs need this win as they are looking up at the Panthers, a team that they boatraced and who hot-air balloned the Chiefs, while Thigpen had a good week passing the Jets pass D is worse than my LSAT score. Get in on this quick, as Vegas is realizing they screwed the pooch on this line. 2 Units. Loss. Bye bye money. The Bucs are my most hated team in the NFL and that is beside the fact they have never covered for me. Hey Bucs, Matt Ryan is gonna torch u in Atlanta and one more thing, go fuck yourselves.


Texans +4.5 @Minniesota: I like this game, good value in the Texans. Matt Shaub is on fire and even The Blanket can't cover Andre Johnson. The Vikings have a rush defense, but their pass rush and pass defense is spotty at best. That being said The Texans defense is not all that great, Peterson will have a big day, setting up play action for Frerotte. The trends show heavy casual betting on the Vikings, my money will be on Matt Shaub and the Texans. 2 Units. Loss. Bye bye money. I forgot that Matt Shaub is made of Fabrege Egg, Texans blow.





That's all the games I have done so far, I will post the rest with my college picks soon. I will close with a text conversation I had with my battle Billy Vegas on Sunday.


1:00 PM me: Its money time battle!!

Billy Vegas: nah, I have to watch a movie

me: Die, a movie about what?

Billy Vegas: Gandhi

me: lmao!! homo.

(15 minutes later)

Billy Vegas: Bye Bye Gandhi, should have had is IBA on!!

me: ROTFLMAO!!!!

1 comment:

Eric Bandazewski said...

bwhahahahah@our text conversation being posted. The only thing i disagree with is you saying you couldnt cover andre johnson. Hes not faster than you battle!