Game Theory Radio

Monday, October 26, 2009

NCAA Week #9 Pick 'em

College football has been keeping my account afloat the last two weeks as my NFL action has been dreadful. I'm not in the mood for any witty banter this week. Lets get to the picks, I will have a big slate of college action this week but here are a few early ones to wet your appetite for money.



East Carolina -4 ECU is a decent team that can score some points, they have had some nice C-USA wins this season to include Marshall, they also beat UCF, a team with a solid defense. Memphis does not have a solid defense, nor are they a good offense. I think the Pirates cover the 4 on the road.Win.



West Virginia -3 USF has no heart and likes to get blown out at home, look for this trend to continue here on a national stage. You can't teach pride or heart and USF has none of either. This game will be like taking free money from Vegas. USF couldn't catch Zach Collaros so how are they going to catch Noel Divine out of the backfield, he will have a huge day and the Mountaineers will move the ball with ease. USF can't stand stopping the run or defending the pass and they really hate winning conference games. WV big. Loss.




****Ole Miss -3 Looks like the Rebels have found their grove, beating a solid Razorbacks team with ease on Saturday. Auburn has been beat real badly their last couple of games and I see that trend continuing here. I think we are getting good value here with the Rebels, lets take advantage of that here. Auburn looks prepped to continue their downward spiral. Loss.



****South Carolina +6 I have stated before, you will never see me take the Gamecocks when they are favored. As dogs they always seem to show up. SC has a solid defense and will be able to pressure Crompton and put the clamps on the Vols running game. The Vols are getting alot of hype coming off a close loss to Alabama, I don't buy it. I see this as a very low scoring game and a battle of field goals, in that situation I love taking points and I think getting 6 points here is a nice play. Loss.



Oregon +4 Oregon loves to cover and they have the best uniforms in college football. USC is over-hyped and an ESPN love child. The Ducks offense has really been clicking since they laid an egg against Boise St., which was a total fluke. USC is nothing special and they do not cover. Barkley is a solid QB but I think he will have a rough time in Autzen Stadium this time around. The Ducks play as of late is a testament to their coach, I don't see the Ducks slowing sown at home. I think the Ducks win this game outright and as always I will take the points as well as the money. Win.



Arkansas -38 Huge number here I know, but this is a non conference game and Mallet's passer rating is through the roof against non-conference opponents. Eastern Michigan hates covering and winning, they will be out matched in every aspect of this game. Having problems justifying the 38? Think about what the Razorbacks did to Texas A&M. I just don't see how the Eagles will be able to score here. Central Michigan beat them by 47 as well and that was an in state rival, Razorbacks might cover after the 1st quarter and they need this game as the Razorbacks have had a very difficult schedule.Loss.




****GT -12 Vandy is getting alot of credit here for being in the SEC, that probably lowered the spread 2-3 points here. GT is in the drivers seat for the ACC crown and I don't see the Yellowjackets taking any opponent lightly. Vandy lost to Army, that's bad. The triple option is very hard to stop and should pile up yardage in this contest as it is very hard to prep for this type of offense.Win.




Houston -6 The line has dropped 1 point in my favor here. I like laying 6 MUCH better than 7 for obvious reasons. Southern Miss has been a huge disappointment, they had a national TV audience that witnessed the Eagles shit their pants a couple of weeks ago, but then again so did the Cougars. Houston is tough at home and their potent offense is very capable of putting up points in a hurry. Southern Miss has a backup at QB which makes me even more comfortable laying the points.Win.




****Pokes +9 The Longhorns are primed for a loss and Stillwater is the perfect place for theri cherry to get popped. Another loss by Oklahoma St and the Pokes are done and out of a Big 12 title shot. Dez Bryant might be in the lineup as well. Texas is a slow starting team, they might want to be careful with that, because Zach Robinson is a solid QB and a fierce competitor and is a better QB then Colt "I don't want to start playing till the 2nd half" Mccoy. If the Pokes double up Jordan "Mr. Ed" Shipley Texas will struggle to move the ball. Hopefully Dez and Kendall are both back for this contest. The Longhorns have no identity right now and look a bit sloppy, upset alert on the road for the Longhorns.Loss.




Air Force -4 I love this game!!!!! I have bet against Air Force 1 time this year and that was when they played covering machine Wyoming (go away Mel Kiper Jr. you ruined Idaho for me and if I see/ hear you talking about the rest of my covering machines and my one reverse covering machine we are going to have a fireside chat and you will not enjoy it). CSU was a jr. covering machine in the beginning of the year as I called the outright when against their in state rival. However, since then the pants shitting has commenced. TCU beat them by 600 and embarrassed me on my pick 'em forum. Air Force plays every one tough for example TCU 3 point loss, Navy 3 point loss, Utah (in Utah) 7 point loss. So I think they cover the 4 easy, this will be a 10 unit play for me. Win.




Gators -15 wooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!! Go Gators!!!!!!! I love Tim Tebow, just kidding I can't stand him. However, Georgia is terrible and Urban Meyer holds a grudge like an elephant, he will never forget the touchdown celebration that the Bulldogs felt prudent to do. The Gators need a big win, its time to put up or shut up for Tebow. I figure the Gators will get a free touchdown here for the 3rd week in a row so technically the spread for this game is -8 and I think the Gators can get that against a pathetic Bulldogs squad. I can't believe I just wrote about the Gators on my blog, their goes my journalistic integrity, I am going to put a bible verse on my eye black for my next co-ed softball game to make amends!Win.




****Indiana +18 The Hoosiers can score some points, Iowa hates scoring points until there is 2 seconds left on the clock and The Blanket is clinging to life. No doubt the Hawkeyes win this game but, I can't see them winning by more than 14. Iowa is another South Carolina. In case you are a new reader I have my South Carolina rule and that rule is as follows quoted from the Bible it states as follows: "The Gamecocks are not in play in any game in which they are favored, they are in play if they are dogs of any amount because they play to the level of their opponents" Apply this to the Hawkeyes in this situation. I have alot of respect for Ferentz and Stanzi as well as the team but 18 is alot of wood here.Push.


Season Record 30-23-2
Pick 'em Challenge 1-3-1
That is what I have money lovers. Lets have a Saturday of unit collecting I need it as I have been breaking even the last 2 weeks. If you have noticed I jumped off the Idaho bandwagon this week as well as my Iowa State bandwagon. Mel Kiper is to blame for Idaho and I have been riding Iowa State for too long. I mentioned earlier about my covering machines. I will list them here because I care about my readers and want them to profit. I'm not one of those handicappers that tries to sway action, I simply don't have the readership for that. My covering machines are Air Force, Navy, Wyoming, South Carolina, my reverse covering machine is Rice, but they are on a bye this week so we will bet against them next week. I started off well this week with an ECU cover, lets keep it going as I look to redeem myself on my NFL action as I have been have un-Blanket-like performances the last two weeks, it ends today.

3 comments:

The Joker Report said...

Yo, if you want to pick 5 each week, just highlight them and you can roll with our challenge from scratch. Up to you, no worries, just let me know.

~J

The Joker Report said...

God these things never get my name right. I give up.

The Blanket said...

alright, I put asteriks next to each of the five games I am submitting for the weekly challenge this week. Next week I will just post the first 5 games as my contest entries and highlight them, this week I am going to go with Ole Miss -3, GT -12, Gamecocks +6, Pokes +9, Indiana +18.