NFL Week 6 Pick 'em

Another tough week of handicapping in the NFL, I had another great Sunday last week improving to 26-5 on my NFL action alone. Looking at the lines it's not going to be an easy task of handicapping these games. Vegas has caught up to me on some teams that I have been riding all season, namely the Bengals and the Broncos. I will be cutting back a bit on my NFL action to offer you the highest quality picks I can resulting in alot of profit with hopefully no loss.




**NEWS FLASH** I am changing this pick to the Texans +6 @ 1 unit***********
Texans +6 I have really struggled with this game. The line doesn't make sense to me, Bengals at home laying 4? Really I expected a spread of 7. If you look at the trends I guess Houston should win outright, the trends say Gary Kubiak is 6-1 against the number on the road after a road loss and the Bengals are 5-10 ATS as a home favorite since 2007, also since 2000 home favorites after a road win by 3 points or less are 19-42 ATS. That being said I have been fading trends since I started handicapping to focus more on the tangibles. The Texans have yet to defeat a team with a win. They could not get to Kurt Warner last week and the Texans hate tackling members of the opposing team who have the football. So what bothers me is, the Cardinals are a one dimensional team, they have zero running game, the Bengals have a resurgent Cedric Benson who amazingly got 100 yards rushing against the Ravens. Cincy has two good corners that can take away two of Houston's weapons, Kubiak will give the ball to Chris Brown who hates positive yardage and painted grass behind 2 orange pylons. Hopefully the Texans pull it out here though. 1 unit.Win.



Ravens +3 I don't see the Ravens losing 3 games in a row, this is a proud team and the Vikings were statistically unimpressive versus the lowly Rams last week. Matter of fact the Vikings were out played, but I covered due to two St. Louis fumbles inside the 5 yard line. I think AP will be pretty much bottled up in this game, 75 yards and a touchdown. The good news and my ace in the hole is that the Ravens get Omar Gaither back this week to protect Flacco's blindside. The Ravens have a great O-line which will give Flacco time to throw against Minnie's 17th ranked secondary and Ray Rice should have another nice day as well. Favre should also play well as the Ravens secondary is not what it used to be, but can Favre keep himself from throwing into triple coverage in this game? Also the Vikings have a 2 game road trip coming up against some tough opponents and a lead in the NFC North, they might no be completely focused here. The Ravens have has success under Harbaugh ATS, so hopefully they pick up a win here. 2 units.Win.




Giants +3 I expect this to be a very tight game, so I am taking the points and the Giants travel very well and will not be bothered by the hostile environment. Eli has been playing out of his mind and the Giants have a nice crop of young receivers and Bradshaw has been running well as of late. The Saints struggled against Buffalo (offensively) and the Lions put some points on them as well. The Giants won't be able to get much pressure on Brees, same with the Saints as both teams have outstanding O-lines, these teams match up well but the Giants have been there before and the Saints hate living up to their hype. The Saints are ranked 6th and 9th against the pass and run, the Giants haven't been as good but those numbers are due to an outlier with Tuck out. Expect a tough game, but I think the Giants squeak it out. 2 units. Loss.




Seahawks -3 We are getting some value here, lets take advantage of that. The Seahawks will be winning the West now that the 49ers have been exposed. Hasselbeck came out on fire, the Seahawks have pitched two shut outs at home this year with Hasselbeck under center. The Seahawks pass rush is good and they are VERY tough at home. Poor David Garrard spent the entire game running for his life, so how do you think the Cardinals and Warner will fair with no running game? MJD ran for only 34 yards, the Seahawks do not have much of a running game either but it is better than Arizona's for sure. I don't see how Warner will be able to have success against the Seahawks pedestrian with the pass rush in his face all day long, the Cards O-line hate pass protecting and it will show. 5 units. Loss.




Eagles -14 Really? Do I actually have to write anything here? Will Tom Cable's headset work from his jail cell. Russell is an oxygen thief with no work ethic. Heyward-Bay is awful and the Raiders hate using their only weapon, Micheal Bush. Mcnabb has a vast array of weapons and Chris Johnson is going to have a real bad day and there is no doubt that Russell will complete a few passes to Asante Samuel and Sheldon Brown. Eagles fly. 5 units.Loss.




Patriots -9 The Patriots will not lose two games in a row, and especially not at home to the lowly Titans. How are the Titans beat up secondary possible going to cover Moss and Welker. The Titans are waving the white flag, I think Collins is gassed and the Titans might start Vince Young since the season is over for them, Pats easy. 5 units.Win.




Falcons -3 Matt Ryan doesn't lose at home, except for the one time he played Jay Cutler. Lovie Smith hates covering after a bye 1-4 ATS. The Bears have the 12th ranked stop unit, BUT lets look at the games they played, you will see that the Falcons O-line is the best they have faced this year, Matt Ryan with time to throw can be bad for business, I expect this game to be close. Don't expect a 20 point Falcons win, like the thrashing they gave the 49ers last week. That win happened mostly because Mike Smith exposed the 49ers over aggressive defense. The Falcons have a great secondary but are terrible at stopping the run, that being said Matt Forte has been struggling so far this year, so lets hope the Falcons can contain him. 2 units.Win.




Broncos +4 Really Vegas? They are still fading the Broncos. The Chargers are done, everyone is fighting, Merriman and Tomlinson are garbage. San Diego has a ton of injuries and a garbage secondary. Moreno will have alot of success on the ground with Jamal Williams out, Orton seems to be doing well in Mcdaniels system. That "Wild Horses" formation is great and the Broncos should have more success with it because I doubt Norv Turner did any prep in their bye week. San Diego has some great weapons, Rivers, Jackson and Gates, but how much can Rivers do when Elvis Dumerville moves into the Chargers backfield? Plus these two teams hate each other so Denver should not have a let down here. I love the points in this game, but hopefully we don't need them. 2 units. Win.


Season Record 31-8
There we have it, 8 games lets have another solid money-making Sunday!