Game Theory Radio

Thursday, October 8, 2009

NFL Week 5 Pick 'em

I watched some of the new UFL game tonight while the Cornhuskers were making me money. It was OK, I didn't like the uniforms at all though, they look boring and CFL-ish. The Huskers logo is the only decent one. I prefer the AFL over the UFL though, more entertaining. Difficult week of handicapping for me here, Vegas has really clamped down on the lines and a few are in the high double digits, which makes even a seasoned prognosticator like myself squeamish. So I am going to assign units to each pick that I make. Lets see what we have to pluck off the money tree for Sunday.



Vikings -10 Some people think this could be a look ahead game for Minnie, but they are a team of veterans and I think they will take this game seriously. The Rams are a complete and utter trainwreck. I don't even know why they let Jackson play he is going to wind up getting injured from the weekly beating he takes behind that horrible offensive line. I don't see the Rams coming close to the endzone in this contest and I am quite sure that Minnie will be able to score at least 2 touchdowns, Jared Allen will probably do that himself. 2 units.Win.





Eagles -15 ALOT of points to lay here, but the Bucs are that bad. They will get Tanard Jackson back to help their 22nd ranked defense. It won't be enough though. the Bucs were unable to move the ball at all against the Redskins despite all the turnovers from Campbell the Bucs got all their points off turnovers that Washington made deep in its own endzone. It won't matter if Kolb or Mcnabb starts in this contest, the Eagles are coming off a bye and at home, they have had time to get healthy and remember what they did in week 1 to the Panthers. Josh Johnson is in way over his head here. 2 units.Win.





Bengals +9 Getting good value here on the Bengals, most likely because they were flat against Cleveland last week, but I guess it is hard to get up for a winless team. The Ravens although I am now becoming a fan of them, could be in a little bit of a spot here. They put alot into the game against the Patriots only to come up a little short. Palmer didn't play well last week, hopefully the Bengals team that shows up is the same one who beat the Steelers and the Packers. The Ravens have struggled against the pass this year. Benson most likely won't be doing too much running in this contest, as the Ravens stop unit is top notch. I think this game will be close with the Ravens pulling out a 3 point win. Also the Ravens left tackle is iffy for this game, which could be a problem for Flacco and the passing game. 5 units.Win.




Texans +6 This will be the first game this year where I have bet on the Texans. I think they are undervalued here. The Texans flat out can't stop the run, but the Cards don't have much of a running game anyway, Wells fumbles too much and Hightower dances around way too much. Schaub has looked good the last couple of games and really torched a solid Raiders CB duo last week. The Cards pass defense was exposed by the Colts and while Warner is still a Hall of Fame QB, he is 38 and did have hip surgery this offseason. The Cards O-line is another question mark as well, but the Texans also struggle against the 3-4 defense, but I think getting 6 points here is too much to walk away from. 5 units. Loss.




Colts -4 The Colts hate the Titans and the Titans reciprocate those sentiments. The Colts are getting healthy and the Titans are on the verge of mailing the rest of this season in. Peyton and Eli right now pretty much own the NFL. The Titans secondary is vastly depleted for this game. Johnson will have to have a ton of touches in this game to keep Manning off the field for the Titans to even have a chance in this game, but in the end I think the Colts will be too much for the Titans to handle. Given the fact the Titans are a desperate team right now and they HATE the Colts I see them putting up and early fight much like the Dolphins did, but resistance will be futile here, Manning is unstoppable. 2 units.Win.





Brown +6 I think I might be the only person taking the Browns but, Anderson wants a win to separate himself from that abomination of a QB Brady Quinn. The Browns got rid of one cancer this week in Braylon Edwards, what a bag of shit that guy is. I thought it was cute how Brady wore Edwards cleats to practice today, but it begs the question, why do you need cleats to stand on the sideline and hold a clip board?? Fitting Edwards went to the Jets, you know...........birds of a feather. The Bills can't stop the run, they have alot of injuries, and the Bills are 3-20 ATS after playing the Dolphins. Harrison should have a nice day and Stuckey will give Anderson a receiver who can actually catch a ball. 2 units. Win.





Broncos +4 I called the Broncos win over the Cowboys last week and I wasn't surprised by it. Last weeks game really helped the Broncos to believe in themselves despite what all the talking heads were saying about them. New England is giving up almost 5 YPC in the rushing game, good news for Moreno who should be in for a big game with Buckhalter out. It was good to see Brandon Marshall make some plays last week, I expect him to come up big in this game to help out his QB Kyle Orton. Orton doesn't have a big play arm but he rarely makes mistakes. Denver's defense is for real and Invesco field will be rocking for this game. Lets not overlook these three gems either. 1.) Taylor is out. 2.) Brady is 1-3 in the Mile High City 3.) Josh Mcdaniels was the OC for who? That's right.............the Patriots. Enjoy this loss Tom Brady, I know I will. 10 units. Win.




Redskins +4 Another undervalued team here, the Redskins have a great defense. They don't get any respect because Campbell sucks but then again Delhomme is no ace either. Let's not forget the Redskins played the Giants tough on the road in week 1. I wouldn't bet on Jake Delhomme with a gun to my head. 2 units.Win.




Steelers -11 The Lions are ranked 28th and 23rd against the run and pass respectively. The hair should be back for this game and the Steelers much maligned O-line finally showed up last week vs the Chargers. Stafford hasn't practiced and it wouldn't be wise for him to start this game. I don't see Culpepper putting up much of a fight against the Steelers D. mike Tomlin won't let his team take the Lions for granted as his team is still only 2-2 and needs this game. 2 units. Loss.




9 games for Sunday, huge action for us to line our pockets with some nice tax-free money!!



Season Record 26-5

4 comments:

Chicago Kid said...

Well done once again on your NFL picks. Who do you like tomorrow night? I think I like the Jets, but don't feel strongly.

The Blanket said...

I don't think I'm going to take that game. If I had to I would take the Dolphins at +3, but Henne against the Jets secondary scares me. Plus I don't know how much running the Dolphins will be able to do against the Jets. I'm just gonna be a spectator for that game.

ChicagoKidPicks said...

Thanks, I know what you mean, it is a tough one.

The Blanket said...

Looks like the public is loading up on the Jets, the line is at -4 now and Vegas is paying even money to take the Jets. Translation vegas thinks Miami will cover this game. I think I might put a unit on the Dolphins!