49ers -3 The Bears are falling apart, now they must go to the West coast and play a desperate 49ers squad on a weeknight which should make for a rabid environment. Both teams have huge problems with their offensive lines. For the Bears this explains why Forte is struggiling and Cutler is under constant pressure, if the Bears had an O-line they would be a much better team. The 49ers have injuries on their O-line as well, they also have Frank Gore though. Smith has been doing OK in place of Hill and has some weapons. The Bears defense has been having problems as well as the Bengals and Cards have torched them in recent weeks. I just think a west coast trip on a short week against a desperate squad will be too much to handle, plus the Bears hate winning on the road. The Bears are also 1-5 ATS in their last 6 on the road. 2 units.Win.
Broncos -3 Kyle Orton had his bad game, so now its out of the way. The public is down on the Broncos now, but I'm not. I have bet on every game they have played this year, going with them 6 times and against them twice. The Broncos have a special place in my heart, they were the first team I bet on when I arrived in Vegas at the NYNY Sportsbook, and they were a winner. Hello Money!! Me > Vegas. I thought to myself "wow, this covering stuff is easy" I strutted around like a cock strong rooster till my girlfriend reminded me I only won $40. The Redskins out gained the Falcons last week, but Campbell is garbage and now they are starting Ladell Betts. The Broncos are a proud veteran team and what better tonic than a tilt with the Deadskins. Their defense will pound Campbell and Collins won't get it done either. Statement game here for the Broncos as they will get back on track in a big way with some solid D and a couple of Redskin turnovers, which will prove costly to them and Vegas. 4 units.Loss.
Bengals +7 The Steelers are on a short week, but they have found their stride. If the Bengals were favored I would take the Steelers here. The Bengals are the new Eagles because they play well as underdogs. The loss of Odom will show itself here as Medenhall is turning into quite the back. The Bengals bottled up Rice last week as well as Flacco, but the Steelers have alot of weapons which will make it difficult to focus on Medenhall when you have Miller, Ward, Holmes and Wallace running around. The Bengals pass defense has been good, we can partially thank a good pass rush for that. Both teams are playing very well right now and this is a rivalry game,which means it should be very tight. I think the Steelers take this one by 2 and we take Vegas by alot. 3 units.Win.
Bills +7 I know, VY just doesn't lose as a starter, very true. However, I am not sure if the Titans are ready to be TD favs here. I was on them last week as they beat the 49ers, but I was getting 4 points. The Bills rush D is iffy at best. Their pass D is very stingy and lets not forget, I always fade the Bills when they are at home and ride them when they are on the road. For some reason they love to cover on the road 6-1 ATS in last 7 road games (Jets, Carolina to name a couple) The key here for the Bills will be stopping Johnson. VY likes to scramble and spread the defense. Hopefully the Bills can limit him and force VY into 3rd and long to move the chains. Edwards will be back for this contest, maybe he will actually throw a deep ball in this game and test the Titans secondary, most likely he will just dump it off to Lynch and Jackson, lets hope that is enough to move the chains. Dick Jauron is 3-0 ATS coming off a bye. Unfortunately for Vegas The Blanket doesn't have a bye week. 1 unit. Loss.
Saints -14 I have already locked this game in. The Saints need to come out strong here, people are starting to question them because they have been falling behind early, albeit against some quality opponents but they have been behind none the less. As long as the Saints can limit Steven Jackson they should be OK, Sedrick Ellis has been out and Denagelo Williams ran wild against them last week, but the Rams do not have and O-line like the Panthers and they also do not have a Steve Smith to take the focus off of. The Saints should focus on stopping Jackson and force Bulger to throw on them. The Rams and Bulger will have trouble with the Saints pass rush as well as their improved secondary. I just don't see how the Rams can keep Brees on the sideline long enough to keep this game from being a laugher, I will be laughing to the bank with some more of that Vegas cash!!! 5 units.Loss.
Buccaneers +10 I cannot believe I just typed that. The Bucs cost me a lot of money last week, which is inexcusable. I watched the whole game and the team was surprisingly motivated all game long and really helped out their young QB Freeman who probably gained alot of confidence. The Bucs made some new additions to their team in the bye week and it showed. The secondary played well, special teams was special, the D-line got alot of pressure on Rodgers (which isn't hard) and the O-line played well protecting Freeman who was sacked only one time. The Dolphins are coming off a really tough loss and now they have to get up for a 1-7 team? I think they will be flat here. I am expecting a nice game from the Bucs secondary which should frustrate Henne and is young WR corps. I have no doubt the Dolphins will win this game, but 10 points is alot for them to handle. The Dolphins struggle to cover spreads of more than 3, so that fact coupled with the psychology edge should play into our hands and bank accounts here. The Dolphins also struggle against NFC opponents 0-6 ATS under head coach Sparano. I am going to wait his game out and hope the public goes the other way and drives the spread to +11, when that happens I will snatch it up with a 4 unit play.Win.
Cowboys -3 The Packers are done, this is another game in which I already locked it in with a 5 unit play for even money. Green Bay couldn't keep the Bucs D-line away from Rodgers, so how exactly are they gonna stop Demarcus Ware?? I see Rodgers throwing another three pic's in this game maybe 2 for ball hawking Mike Jenkins FROM???? USF. The Cowboys secondary will give Rodgers all kinds of problems in this game, I see alot of coverage sacks here. With the Packers struggling to score points I think Romo will continue his solid, interception free play here, Miles Austin needs a big game and I don't see the Packers stopping the Cowboys rushing game because they couldn't do it against the Bucs. I don't care if they are in Lambeau, won't matter. Packers will be outplayed on both sides of the ball. 5 units.Loss.
Ravens -11 Another game I locked in early. The Ravens are a proud team full of veterans who are looking to make a statement. What better team to do that against then the Browns, what better time to do it then on Monday night football? The Browns are a mess and are starting Brady Quinn who will get eaten alive as he is afraid to throw the ball down field, he won't do that with Ed Reed hanging around back there. Rice should have a bounce back game here which will be good for Flacco allowing him time to throw by using the play action. The Browns have a decent defense but their offense is so inept they are always on the field, that will be the downfall here as the Ravens need this win to salvage any Wildcard hopes. Ravens easy. 5 units.Win.
Season Record: 48-20-1
I have posted 8 games so far and will return with two more, I like the Eagles, but have some more digging to do for my 10th game. See you soon.
1 comment:
Won with the 49ers last night as well; and expect to tag along with you on some more this weekend. Just posted the CFB picks for this week in an effort to rebound. Good luck!
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