Not the best of Sundays last week, I went 7-6 but hit most of my multi-unit plays. I guess Vegas isn't giving out their usual pre black Friday freebies. I guess the economy is even affecting the 7 guys that generate these lines. The only comfortable cover I had was the Vikings pounding the Seahawks, everything else was alot of sighing and refresh button. That's OK, Vegas can only satisfy me with nickel and dime positive units for so long. I need one of my patented monster weeks to send them a message that I don't appreciate them forsaking all of us degenerate gamblers who look forward to our late November handouts. Remember Vegas, easy way or hard way, either way I take your money. Write it down. Without further delay here are my NFL picks for this week:
Giants -7 (Thanksgiving Special) The Broncos are gassed, their veteran defense is beat up and Kyle Orton's ankle is in a bad way, much like Denver will be here. The Giants got a much needed win over a Falcons squad that isn't very good. Eli gained some much needed confidence as he torched Atlanta's abysmal secondary throwing to his vast array of talented WR's (must be nice to have a vast array of talented WR's and not have say.............Micheal "Hands of Stone" Jenkins). I don't think the Broncos will have much success running the ball in this contest which will force Orton to move the chains on his own, which on a bum ankle I think that might be a risky proposition, but when Chris Simms is your back-up I would rather roll Orton out in a wheel chair than rely on Simms to convert third downs. The Giants should be able to pound the ball and Eli will have time to throw as the Broncos cracks on D are starting to show. 2 units.Loss.
***********************PICK CHANGE ALERT, TAKING TEXANS +4********************
Texans +4 Funny the Texans were 9 point dogs 2 weeks ago. The Texans can't beat the Colts (1-14 all time and they are now 4-12 versus the Titans). The Texans also had a huge letdown on their Monday night game, which I profited from! The Colts survived a dust-up with the Ravens and Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis did nothing in that game because they were shut down by Gaither and Oher. So they should have their ears pinned back and be coming after Schaub with reckless abandon. This should be a tight game, 1 more point on this spread and I would have taken the Texans. I just think this is a bad spot for them here. Texans are 1-3-1 ATS at home this year, but 5-1 ATS versus the colts in their last 6, meanwhile the Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. I think that the Colts will change some things up for this game given the proximity of their last game. I also have to question both teams ability to run the ball, Addai needs to get it going here, Donald Brown should be good to go for this game too, lets hope he chips in as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Browns +14 The Bengals have no business laying 14 points to anyone, they just got waxed by Gradkowski and the Raiders, how embarrassing. Take away the beat down of the Bears and the Bengals haven't won by 14 all year, that includes a 3 point win against the Browns in Week #4 and losing to the Raiders doesn't tell me you have improved. It is also a divisional rivalry game between two teams that know and hate each other. Don't expect Brady Quinn to go berserk again and throw the ball all over the field as the Lions have an atrocious pass defense, Quinn will be scared to throw on Johnathan Joseph and Leon Hall so he will most likely revert to his short junk. I was not pleased with the Browns defense last week, it's like the offense and defense both did 180's last week, lets hope the usual Browns defense shows up for this game. 3 units Win.
Redskins +10 Eagles as big favorites? Injuries to Westbrook? Hanson out? Samuels and Sheldon Brown hurt? Andy Reid as coach? Hello Money!! The Redskins have been playing a little better since the arrival of the Bingo caller extraordinaire. Campbell has been putting up solid numbers and hasn't turned the ball over. Washington has a solid defense and will be able to handle Jackson and Maclin with their pass coverage as well as Celek. Cartwright gets the start and their should be no drop-off at the RB position for the Skins as he is a good pass catcher out of the backfield. Randle-El and Moss will get the short passes as the Redskins move the ball. Philly will win this game but 10 points for a team with alot of injuries against a division foe is way too much to ask. 5 units.Win.
Dolphins -3 Miami really surprised me last week as they boat raced the Panthers sans Ronnie Brown, good for them and bad for my account as I took a large beating off that game. That's OK because the Dolphins will pay me back this week. I expected the Bills to get blown out last week with Jauron hitting the bricks, but Fewell had them in that contest against a lazy Jacksonville team. Buffalo is another team that has been decimated by injuries, Fitzpatrick had a good game last week but the Jags pass rush is nothing to write home about. Taylor and Porter will be getting after him here. The Bills running game is also non-existent as Lynch is garbage but they continue to go to him. Miami is stout against the rush so Jackson won't be able to do much either. Henne had success against a solid Panthers secondary and that should carry over to this contest. Lets hope Ricky has another career day here. 3 units.Loss.
Seahawks -3 If Bulger was starting this game I would be taking the Rams, but instead we will have Kyle Boller. I will pause while you look at Boller's stats....................................Impressive no? Seattle is a desperate team Burleson and TJ haven't caught a ball in a while, Forsett should have a big game as I foresee the Rams defense sending lots of time on the field due to Boller's ineptness. Hasselbeck should have a quality day as the Rams are awful against the pass. As long as Steven Jackson doesn't run wild we should win this one going away. 2 units.Win.
Panthers +3 John Fox needs to run the ball with Williams and Stewart, use your weapons John and run at the Jenkins-less Jets. Smith will be taken out of this game by Revis, so Delhomme will have to settle for some short passes. If the Panthers use the running game effectively they should be able to move the chains. Sanchez will have no shot against a solid secondary like the Panthers have. Carolina is better against the rush than the Patriots so they should have success in stopping Jones and Greene. The Jets are done and will probably be flat after hanging around in the Pats game only to see it slip away. Carolina on the other hand needs a win to keep Wildcard hopes alive. 2 units.Loss.
49ers -3 The Jags are a lazy team and Del Rio must have went to the Norv Turner/ Ron Turner school of game planning. Rashean Mathis is out for this game and Jacksonville's pass defense is awful, Crabtree and Davis should have nice days. Smith has some problems with protection but the Jags don't like sacking the QB anyway so it won't matter. The 49ers run defense has been spotty lately but I think it is a result of their secondary getting beat worse than Jimmy Claussen in a bar fight. Hopefully they can hold MJD down and force Garrard to throw on them, but knowing Del Rio he probably won't even start MJD and say it was his "strategy". 3 units.Win.
Chiefs +14 KC is 5-1 ATS in its last 6, 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. They were blown out by the Chargers a few weeks ago but I think that was a fluke. Cassell likes to score late touchdowns to cover and apparently not having Bowe didn't faze him as he torched the Steelers secondary last week. These two teams hate each other and the Chiefs got rid of homophobic LJ and gave the ball to Jamaal Charles, who will have success against the Chargers injury ridden front. Chambers will be looking to burn his former employers as well. The Chargers secondary has been patchwork this season as well, so Lance Long will probably do his best Wes Welker imitation and get in the mix as well. 1 unit.Loss.
Saints -3 It pains me to write that but sometimes you have to face the facts. The public is all over the Patriots and I would be to, however; the Saints get Sedrick Ellis back as well as Jabarri Greer this week. New England will not be able to run the ball. This will force Brady to do it all and Moss will be taken out of the game by Greer. So now the Saints will have to focus on Faulk and Welker. I just don't trust the Pats defense to stop Brees, he just has too many weapons and Bush will be back for this contest as well. 2 units.Win.
Vikings -11 This game could get ugly quick. The Bears are a train wreck, Forte will have no running lanes and the Bears WR's lack the experience to go against a solid secondary with Jared Allen chasing after Cutler. Antoine Winfield will be back for this game and looking to catch some passes thrown by Jay Cutler. This game could be the swan song for Lovie as his days are already numbered. Maybe the Bears should try Charles Tillman at WR, without him the Bears would probably be 0-10. 2 units.Win.
Season Record 61-31-1
There we have it 11 games for Sunday I might add one or two more games but we will see I wasn't really that high on any of these spreads this Sunday as you can tell by the absence of 4 and 5 unit plays ( well I do have one 5 unit play ). Lets hope for a nice Sunday cash flow to offset the Black Friday spending, see you at the cash cage.
No comments:
Post a Comment